Related papers: Modeling Epidemic Spreading through Public Transit…
We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Models of disease spreading are critical for predicting infection growth in a population and evaluating public health policies. However, standard models typically represent the dynamics of disease transmission between individuals using…
Routine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases -- possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be…
Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
This paper investigates the performance of epidemic routing in mobile social networks. It first analyzes the time taken for a node to meet the first node of a set of nodes restricted to move in a specific subarea. Afterwards, a monolithic…
We study a coupled epidemic-mobility model in which, at each time, individuals move in a network of spatially-distributed regions (sub-populations) according to a Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) and subsequently interact with the local…
The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved…
Epidemic control is of great importance for human society. Adjusting interacting partners is an effective individualized control strategy. Intuitively, it is done either by shortening the interaction time between susceptible and infected…
Contagious diseases can spread quickly in human populations, either through airborne transmission or if some other spreading vectors are abundantly accessible. They can be particularly devastating if the impact on individuals' health has…
Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…
We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…
The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swept across more than 180 countries and territories since late January 2020. As a worldwide emergency response, governments have implemented various measures and policies, such as…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
Human mobility forms the backbone of contact patterns through which infectious diseases propagate, fundamentally shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics and pandemics. While traditional models are often based on the assumption…
Bus transportation is considered as one of the most convenient and cheapest modes of public transportation in Indian cities. Due to their cost-effectiveness and wide reachability, they help a significant portion of the human population in…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
Reducing the number of contacts between passengers on an airplane can potentially curb the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, a social force based pedestrian movement model is formulated and applied to evaluate the movement and…