Related papers: Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19

Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Severe acute respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 has had a found impact on public health systems and healthcare emergency response especially with respect to making decisions on the most effective measures to be taken at any given time. As…

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for robust, scalable monitoring tools supporting stratification of high-risk patients. This research aims to develop and validate prediction models, using the UK Biobank, to estimate COVID-19…

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this…

A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…

Nowadays, social media is the main tool in our new lives. The outbreak news and all related obtained from social media, and mob events affect the of spread these news fast. Recently, epidemiological models to study disease spread and…

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from…

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50…

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges worldwide, necessitating effective modelling approaches to understand and control its transmission dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel approach that integrates…

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…