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A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-14 Mahdi Pakdaman Naeini , Gregory F. Cooper , Milos Hauskrecht

In this paper, we examine the use of Conformal Language Modelling (CLM) alongside Answer Set Programming (ASP) to enhance the performance of standard open-weight LLMs on complex multi-step reasoning tasks. Using the StepGame dataset, which…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Navdeep Kaur , Lachlan McPheat , Alessandra Russo , Anthony G Cohn , Pranava Madhyastha

Early-exit neural networks (EENNs) accelerate inference by allowing intermediate classifiers to stop computation once predictions are confident enough. Most methods rely on confidence thresholds for exiting, and consequently, improving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Piotr Kubaty , Filip Szatkowski , Grzegorz Choczyński , Eric Nalisnick , Bartosz Wójcik

Uncertainty quantification is essential for assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of modern AI systems. Among existing approaches, verbalized uncertainty, where models express their confidence through natural language, has emerged…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Weihao Xuan , Qingcheng Zeng , Heli Qi , Junjue Wang , Naoto Yokoya

Handling uncertainty is critical for ensuring reliable decision-making in intelligent systems. Modern neural networks are known to be poorly calibrated, resulting in predicted confidence scores that are difficult to use. This article…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Gabriele Sanguin , Arjun Pakrashi , Marco Viola , Francesco Rinaldi

In machine learning, model calibration and predictive inference are essential for producing reliable predictions and quantifying uncertainty to support decision-making. Recognizing the complementary roles of point and interval predictions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Lars van der Laan , Ahmed M. Alaa

For several purposes in Natural Language Processing (NLP), such as Information Extraction, Sentiment Analysis or Chatbot, Named Entity Recognition (NER) holds an important role as it helps to determine and categorize entities in text into…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-03-24 Thong Nguyen , Duy Nguyen , Pramod Rao

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Despite the recent advances in abstractive text summarization, current summarization models still suffer from generating factually inconsistent summaries, reducing their utility for real-world application. We argue that the main reason for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Polina Zablotskaia , Misha Khalman , Rishabh Joshi , Livio Baldini Soares , Shoshana Jakobovits , Joshua Maynez , Shashi Narayan

This paper provides both an introduction to and a detailed overview of the principles and practice of classifier calibration. A well-calibrated classifier correctly quantifies the level of uncertainty or confidence associated with its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Telmo Silva Filho , Hao Song , Miquel Perello-Nieto , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Meelis Kull , Peter Flach

Despite the significant progress made in practical applications of aligned language models (LMs), they tend to be overconfident in output answers compared to the corresponding pre-trained LMs. In this work, we systematically evaluate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Guande He , Peng Cui , Jianfei Chen , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Prompt tuning of large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP enables efficient task adaptation without updating model weights. However, it often leads to poor confidence calibration and unreliable predictive uncertainty. We address this…

The dominating NLP paradigm of training a strong neural predictor to perform one task on a specific dataset has led to state-of-the-art performance in a variety of applications (eg. sentiment classification, span-prediction based question…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Paul Michel

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models, and prior research has demonstrated improvements in the calibration of modern language models (LMs). We study in-context learning (ICL), a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-29 Hanlin Zhang , Yi-Fan Zhang , Yaodong Yu , Dhruv Madeka , Dean Foster , Eric Xing , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sham Kakade

Classifier calibration has received recent attention from the machine learning community due both to its practical utility in facilitating decision making, as well as the observation that modern neural network classifiers are poorly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 John Kirchenbauer , Jacob Oaks , Eric Heim

Modern deep models for summarization attains impressive benchmark performance, but they are prone to generating miscalibrated predictive uncertainty. This means that they assign high confidence to low-quality predictions, leading to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Polina Zablotskaia , Du Phan , Joshua Maynez , Shashi Narayan , Jie Ren , Jeremiah Liu

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance in a wide-range of language tasks without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. However, they remain prone to hallucinations and inconsistencies, and often struggle with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Matt Pauk , Maria Leonor Pacheco

Delivering meaningful uncertainty estimates is essential for a successful deployment of machine learning models in the clinical practice. A central aspect of uncertainty quantification is the ability of a model to return predictions that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-03 Adrian Galdran , Johan Verjans , Gustavo Carneiro , Miguel A. González Ballester

For many applications of probabilistic classifiers it is important that the predicted confidence vectors reflect true probabilities (one says that the classifier is calibrated). It has been shown that common models fail to satisfy this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-10 Michael Panchenko , Anes Benmerzoug , Miguel de Benito Delgado

This technical report introduces a Named Clinical Entity Recognition Benchmark for evaluating language models in healthcare, addressing the crucial natural language processing (NLP) task of extracting structured information from clinical…