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The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed…
Residential aged-care facilities (RACFs, also called long-term care facilities, aged care homes, or nursing homes) have elevated risks of respiratory infection outbreaks and associated disease burden. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social…
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a policy making crisis where efforts to slow down or end the pandemic conflict with economic priorities. This paper provides mathematical analysis of optimal disease control policies with idealized…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
The epidemiology of pandemics is classically viewed using geographical and political borders; however, these artificial divisions can result in a misunderstanding of the current epidemiological state within a given region. To improve upon…
Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…
Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and quarantine of close contacts - often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy - is one of the cornerstone measures of…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
While social living is considered to be an indispensable part of human life in today's ever-connected world, social distancing has recently received much public attention on its importance since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In…
How does social distancing affect the reach of an epidemic in social networks? We present Monte Carlo simulation results of a capacity constrained Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. The key modelling feature is that individuals are…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…
Most countries have started vaccinating people against COVID-19. However, due to limited production capacities and logistical challenges it will take months/years until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, vaccination and social distancing…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
The spread of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the first half of 2020 was curtailed to a larger or lesser extent through measures of social distancing imposed by most countries. In this work, we link directly, through machine learning…
Identifying key nodes is crucial for accelerating or impeding dynamic spreading in a network. Community-aware centrality measures tackle this problem by exploiting the community structure of a network. Although there is a growing trend to…
Social distancing is a recommended solution by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to minimise the spread of COVID-19 in public places. The majority of governments and national health authorities have set the 2-meter physical distancing as…
Understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been one of the most pressing problems of the recent past. Network models present a potent approach to studying such spreading phenomena because of their ability to represent complex social…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
The spread of COVID-19 caused by the recently discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. To slow down the spread of the pandemic, mass quarantines have been implemented globally, provoking…