Related papers: Is the variance swap rate affine in the spot varia…
We extend the stationary-state work fluctuation theorem to periodically modulated nonlinear systems. Such systems often have coexisting stable periodic states. We show that work fluctuations sharply increase near a kinetic phase transition…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
In this paper we perform robustness and sensitivity analysis of several continuous-time stochastic volatility (SV) models with respect to the process of market calibration. The analyses should validate the hypothesis on importance of the…
The aim of this work is to introduce a new stochastic volatility model for equity derivatives. To overcome some of the well-known problems of the Heston model, and more generally of the affine models, we define a new specification for the…
We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility…
This paper shows that the degree of approximate multicollinearity in a linear regression model increases simply by including independent variables, even if these are not highly linearly related. In the current situation where it is…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term…
Several studies have focused on the Realized Range Volatility, an estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices, taking into account the impact of microstructure noise and jumps. However, none has considered direct modeling and…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
This paper shows the relationship between the forward start volatility swap price and the forward start zero vanna implied volatility of forward start options in rough volatility models. It is shown that in the short time-to-maturity limit…
Activity-related variations in the solar oscillation properties have been known for 30 years. However, the relative importance of the different contributions to the observed variations is not yet fully understood. Our goal is to estimate…
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 -…
We introduce an affine extension of the Heston model where the instantaneous variance process contains a jump part driven by $\alpha$-stable processes with $\alpha\in(1,2]$. In this framework, we examine the implied volatility and its…
This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate Extreme Value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder, and Tawn. In these models both unconditional and conditional distributions are EV, and all lower-dimensional marginals…
Modeling univariate block maxima by the generalized extreme value distribution constitutes one of the most widely applied approaches in extreme value statistics. It has recently been found that, for an underlying stationary time series,…
This paper explores the capabilities of the Constant Elasticity of Variance model driven by a mixed-fractional Brownian motion (mfCEV) [Axel A. Araneda. The fractional and mixed-fractional CEV model. Journal of Computational and Applied…
This paper investigates the pricing and hedging of variance swaps under a $3/2$ volatility model. Explicit pricing and hedging formulas of variance swaps are obtained under the benchmark approach, which only requires the existence of the…