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In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter…
We present a statistical test that can be used to verify supervisory requirements concerning overlapping time windows for the long-term calibration in rating systems. In a first step, we show that the long-run default rate is approximately…
In this paper we study the Fourier estimator of Malliavin and Mancino for the spot volatility. We establish the convergence of the trigonometric polynomial to the volatility's path in a setting that includes the following aspects. First,…
The nonparametric volatility estimation problem of a scalar diffusion process observed at equidistant time points is addressed. Using the spectral representation of the volatility in terms of the invariant density and an eigenpair of the…
In this paper, we develop econometric tools to analyze the integrated volatility of the efficient price and the dynamic properties of microstructure noise in high-frequency data under general dependent noise. We first develop consistent…
The estimation of the volatility with high-frequency data is plagued by the presence of microstructure noise, which leads to biased measures. Alternative estimators have been developed and tested either on specific structures of the noise…
We provide a comprehensive analysis of spot volatility inference in pure-jump semimartingales under two asymptotic settings: fixed-$k$, where each local window uses a fixed number of observations, and large-$k$, where this number grows with…
In this paper, we first investigate the estimation of the empirical joint Laplace transform of volatilities of two semi-martingales within a fixed time interval [0, T] by using overlapped increments of high-frequency data. The proposed…
We proposed a real time Total-Variation denosing method with an automatic choice of hyper-parameter $\lambda$, and the good performance of this method provides a large application field. In this article, we adapt the developed method to the…
In this paper we show that Hilbert space-valued stochastic models are robust with respect to perturbation, due to measurement or approximation errors, in the underlying volatility process. Within the class of stochastic volatility modulated…
The bias-variance trade-off is a central concept in supervised learning. In classical statistics, increasing the complexity of a model (e.g., number of parameters) reduces bias but also increases variance. Until recently, it was commonly…
We propose a new method to obtain kinetic properties of infrequent events from molecular dynamics simulation. The procedure employs a recently introduced variational approach [Valsson and Parrinello, Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 090601 (2014)] to…
We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop…
This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CSI 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model,…
We amend and extend the Chiarella model of financial markets to deal with arbitrary long-term value drifts in a consistent way. This allows us to improve upon existing calibration schemes, opening the possibility of calibrating individual…
In this paper, we propose a new threshold-kernel jump-detection method for jump-diffusion processes, which iteratively applies thresholding and kernel methods in an approximately optimal way to achieve improved finite-sample performance. We…
Kernel Estimation is one of the most widely used estimation methods in non-parametric Statistics, having a wide-range of applications, including spot volatility estimation of stochastic processes. The selection of bandwidth and kernel…
Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or…
We develop Edgeworth expansion theory for spot volatility estimator under general assumptions on the log-price process that allow for drift and leverage effect. The result is based on further estimation of skewness and kurtosis, when…
Tasks that require information about the world imply a trade-off between the time spent on observation and the variance of the response. In particular, fast decisions need to rely on uncertain information. However, standard estimates of…