Related papers: Covid-19 -- A simple statistical model for predict…

The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds,…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences, highlighting the urgency for explanatory and predictive tools to track infection rates and burden of care over time and space. However, the scarcity and inhomogeneity of data is a…

Intensive care occupancy is an important indicator of health care stress that has been used to guide policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Toward reliable decision-making as a pandemic progresses, estimating the rates at which…

Estimating the lengths-of-stay (LoS) of hospitalised COVID-19 patients is key for predicting the hospital beds' demand and planning mitigation strategies, as overwhelming the healthcare systems has critical consequences for disease…

Objective. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions related…

Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New York City and…

This paper focuses on drawing information on underlying processes, which are not directly observed in the data. In particular, we work with data in which only the total count of units in a system at a given time point is observed, but the…

A short introduction to survival analysis and censored data is included in this paper. A thorough literature review in the field of cure models has been done. An overview on the most important and recent approaches on parametric,…

With the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we became aware of the need for comprehensive data collection and its provision to scientists and experts for proper data analyses. In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has tried to keep…

Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…

We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…

Intensive care unit (ICU) is a crucial hospital department that handles life-threatening cases. Nowadays machine learning (ML) is being leveraged in healthcare ubiquitously. In recent years, management of ICU became one of the most…

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating younger patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but a quantitative assessment of these measures has remained…

Respiratory failure is the one of major causes of death in critical care unit. During the outbreak of COVID-19, critical care units experienced an extreme shortage of mechanical ventilation because of respiratory failure related syndromes.…

Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…

This work presents a simple and realistic approach to handle the available data of COVID-19 patients in India and to forecast the scenario. The model proposed is based on the available facts like the onset of lockdown (as announced by the…

The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is difficult to estimate because the number of infections is unknown and there is a lag between each infection and the potentially subsequent death. We introduce a new approach for estimating…

For the last few years there has been a resurgence in the use of phenomenological growth models for predicting the early dynamics of infectious diseases. These models assume that time is a continuous variable whereas in the present…

We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with…