Related papers: Predicting tail events in a RIA-EVT-Copula framewo…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
Tail dependence refers to clustering of extreme events. In the context of financial risk management, the clustering of high-severity risks has a devastating effect on the well-being of firms and is thus of pivotal importance in risk…
Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…
Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…
Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
The Peaks-Over Threshold is a fundamental method in the estimation of rare events such as small exceedance probabilities, extreme quantiles and return periods. The main problem with the Peaks-Over Threshold method relates to the selection…
A key building block in the design of ultra-reliable communication systems is a wireless channel model that captures the statistics of rare events occurring due to significant fading. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology based on…
Systemic risk measures quantify the potential risk to an individual financial constituent arising from the distress of entire financial system. As a generalization of two widely applied risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall,…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
In this paper, we introduce a novel model for the meta-analysis of proportions that integrates the standard random-effects model (REM) with an extreme value theory (EVT)-based component. The proposed model, named XT-REM (Extreme-Tail Random…
A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…
For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…
We propose a Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence directly from observed joint success frequencies across founder, geography, and market attributes. Holding marginal deal success probabilities fixed, deal-level…
Extreme events are often multivariate in nature. A compound extreme occurs when a combination of variables jointly produces a significant impact, even if individual components are not necessarily marginally extreme. Compound extremes have…
Classical models for multivariate or spatial extremes are mainly based upon the asymptotically justified max-stable or generalized Pareto processes. These models are suitable when asymptotic dependence is present, i.e., the joint tail…
This paper measures and compares the tail risks of limit and market orders using Extreme Value Theory. The analysis examines realised tail outcomes using the Dealing 2000-2 electronic broking system based on completed transactions rather…
Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…
The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…
We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…