Related papers: Analyzing count data using a time series model wit…
In many applications, it is of interest to assess the dependence structure in multivariate longitudinal data. Discovering such dependence is challenging due to the dimensionality involved. By concatenating the random effects from component…
Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…
We consider the situation where a temporal process is composed of contiguous segments with differing slopes and replicated noise-corrupted time series measurements are observed. The unknown mean of the data generating process is modelled as…
We develop an efficient Bayesian sequential inference framework for factor analysis models observed via various data types, such as continuous, binary and ordinal data. In the continuous data case, where it is possible to marginalise over…
Collected data, which is used for analysis or prediction tasks, often have a hierarchical structure, for example, data from various people performing the same task. Modeling the data's structure can improve the reliability of the derived…
We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic…
Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…
This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…
The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…
The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…
This paper explores foundational and applied aspects of survival analysis, using fall risk assessment as a case study. It revisits key time-related probability distributions and statistical methods, including logistic regression, Poisson…
Forecast reconciliation is an important research topic. Yet, there is currently neither formal framework nor practical method for the probabilistic reconciliation of count time series. In this paper we propose a definition of coherency and…
Count data are common in medical research. When these data have more zeros than expected by the most used count distributions, it is common to employ a zero-inflated regression model. However, the interpretability of these models is much…
We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…
In this work we present full Bayesian inference for a new flexible nonseparable class of cross-covariance functions for multivariate spatial data. A Bayesian test is proposed for separability of covariance functions which is much more…
A Bayesian approach is used to estimate the covariance matrix of Gaussian data. Ideas from Gaussian graphical models and model selection are used to construct a prior for the covariance matrix that is a mixture over all decomposable graphs.…
Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…
Survival regression is widely used to model time-to-events data, to explore how covariates may influence the occurrence of events. Modern datasets often encompass a vast number of covariates across many subjects, with only a subset of the…