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A common issue in learning decision-making policies in data-rich settings is spurious correlations in the offline dataset, which can be caused by hidden confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) regression, which utilises a key unconfounded…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska

Instrumental variable methods are fundamental to causal inference when treatment assignment is confounded by unobserved variables. In this article, we develop a general nonparametric causal framework for identification and learning with…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

The double machine learning (DML) method combines the predictive power of machine learning with statistical estimation to conduct inference about the structural parameter of interest. This paper presents the R package `xtdml`, which…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-19 Annalivia Polselli

In this paper, we apply doubly robust approach to estimate, when some covariates are given, the conditional average treatment effect under parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric structure of the nuisance propensity score and outcome…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Chuyun Ye , Keli Guo , Lixing Zhu

Traditionally, spline or kernel approaches in combination with parametric estimation are used to infer the linear coefficient (fixed effects) in a partially linear mixed-effects model for repeated measurements. Using machine learning…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-03 Corinne Emmenegger , Peter Bühlmann

Researchers and practitioners often wish to measure treatment effects in settings where units interact via markets and recommendation systems. In these settings, units are affected by certain shared states, like prices, algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Chris Hays , Manish Raghavan

Observational cohort studies are increasingly being used for comparative effectiveness research to assess the safety of therapeutics. Recently, various doubly robust methods have been proposed for average treatment effect estimation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Xiaoqing Tan , Shu Yang , Wenyu Ye , Douglas E. Faries , Ilya Lipkovich , Zbigniew Kadziola

Debiased machine learning (DML) offers an attractive way to estimate treatment effects in observational settings, where identification of causal parameters requires a conditional independence or unconfoundedness assumption, since it allows…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-16 Victor Quintas-Martinez

Many programs evaluated in observational studies incorporate a sequential structure, where individuals may be assigned to various programs over time. While this complexity is often simplified by analyzing programs at single points in time,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-16 Fabian Muny

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Debiased machine learning estimators for smooth functionals in nonparametric models can exhibit substantial variability and instability, often leading practitioners to instead rely on parametric or semiparametric working models. Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Lars van der Laan , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Mark van der Laan

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-17 Vira Semenova , Victor Chernozhukov

This paper considers the evaluation of discretely distributed treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or outcome attrition. For identification, we combine a selection-on-observables assumption…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-16 Michela Bia , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average treatment effect in high dimensional low sample size observational studies, where contamination and model misspecification pose serious inferential challenges. The estimator combines…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Byeonghee Lee , Sangwook Kang , Ju-Hyun Park , Saebom Jeon , Joonsung Kang

In response to the increasing complexity of policy environments and the proliferation of high-dimensional data, this paper introduces the S-DIDML estimator a framework grounded in structure and semiparametrically flexible for causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Yile Yu , Anzhi Xu

It is of particular interests in many application fields to draw doubly robust inference of a logistic partially linear model with the predictor specified as combination of a targeted low dimensional linear parametric function and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-31 Molei Liu

Proper hyperparameter tuning is essential for achieving optimal performance of modern machine learning (ML) methods in predictive tasks. While there is an extensive literature on tuning ML learners for prediction, there is only little…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-08 Philipp Bach , Oliver Schacht , Victor Chernozhukov , Sven Klaassen , Martin Spindler

Unlike parametric regression, machine learning (ML) methods do not generally require precise knowledge of the true data generating mechanisms. As such, numerous authors have advocated for ML methods to estimate causal effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-15 Ashley I Naimi , Alan E Mishler , Edward H Kennedy

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Qi Wu , Xing Yan

Solving conditional moment restrictions (CMRs) is a key problem considered in statistics, causal inference, and econometrics, where the aim is to solve for a function of interest that satisfies some conditional moment equalities.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Daqian Shao , Ashkan Soleymani , Francesco Quinzan , Marta Kwiatkowska