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In real applications, the construction of prior and acceleration of sampling for posterior are usually two key points of Bayesian inversion algorithm for engineers. In this paper, q-analogy of Gaussian distribution, q-Gaussian distribution,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-06 Zhiliang Deng , Xiaomei Yang

Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-05 Noa Kallioinen , Topi Paananen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches as a means to dealing…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-02-06 Michael Pfarrhofer , Philipp Piribauer

Simultaneous predictive densities for independent Poisson observables are investigated. The observed data and the target variables to be predicted are independently distributed according to different Poisson distributions parametrized by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-27 Fumiyasu Komaki

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Aaron M. Bornstein , Michele Guindani , Marina Vannucci

Consider the problem of high dimensional variable selection for the Gaussian linear model when the unknown error variance is also of interest. In this paper, we show that the use of conjugate shrinkage priors for Bayesian variable selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Gemma E. Moran , Veronika Rockova , Edward I. George

Prior choice can strongly influence Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA (B-DARMA) inference for compositional time-series. Using simulations with (i) correct lag order, (ii) overfitting, and (iii) underfitting, we assess five priors:…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Harrison Katz , Liz Medina , Robert E. Weiss

Prior distributions for high-dimensional linear regression require specifying a joint distribution for the unobserved regression coefficients, which is inherently difficult. We instead propose a new class of shrinkage priors for linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yan Dora Zhang , Brian P. Naughton , Howard D. Bondell , Brian J. Reich

Variable selection has received widespread attention over the last decade as we routinely encounter high-throughput datasets in complex biological and environment research. Most Bayesian variable selection methods are restricted to mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-24 Hanning Li , Debdeep Pati

In recent years, shrinkage priors have received much attention in high-dimensional data analysis from a Bayesian perspective. Compared with widely used spike-and-slab priors, shrinkage priors have better computational efficiency. But the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-16 Ruoyang Zhang , Malay Ghosh

We consider estimation of a normal mean matrix under the Frobenius loss. Motivated by the Efron--Morris estimator, a generalization of Stein's prior has been recently developed, which is superharmonic and shrinks the singular values towards…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-19 Takeru Matsuda , Fumiyasu Komaki , William E. Strawderman

We consider the problem of learning the structure of a high dimensional precision matrix under sparsity assumptions. We propose to use a shrinkage prior, called the DL-graphical prior based on the Dirichlet-Laplace prior used for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-08 Sayantan Banerjee

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

Shrinkage prior are becoming more and more popular in Bayesian modeling for high dimensional sparse problems due to its computational efficiency. Recent works show that a polynomially decaying prior leads to satisfactory posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-14 Qifan Song

The first-order autoregressive process, AR (1), has been widely used and implemented in time series analysis. Different estimation methods have been employed in order to estimate the autoregressive parameter. This article focuses on…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-29 Hossein Masoumi Karakani , Janet van Niekerk , Paul van Staden

Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-16 Joshua C. C. Chan

In Bayesian regression models with categorical predictors, constraints are needed to ensure identifiability when using all $K$ levels of a factor. The sum-to-zero constraint is particularly useful as it allows coefficients to represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Zhi Ling , Shozen Dan

We propose a closed-form spectral framework for relative log-density estimation in linearly parameterized probabilistic models, including unnormalized and conditional models. This is achieved by representing the Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Francis Bach

We investigate Bayesian shrinkage methods for constructing predictive distributions. We consider the multivariate Normal model with a known covariance matrix and show that the Bayesian predictive density with respect to Stein's harmonic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-31 Yuzo Maruyama , Toshio Ohnishi