Related papers: Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian …

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe public health consequences in the United States. In this study, we use a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific COVID-19 attributable deaths over time in the United States. The model…

We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with rapid human-to-human transmission and a high case fatality rate particularly in older…

We present an empirical algorithm to forecast the evolution of the number of COVID-19 symptomatic patients in the early stages of the pandemic spread and after strict social distancing interventions. The algorithm is based on a low…

A simple analytical model for modeling the evolution of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is presented. The model is based on the numerical solution of the widely used Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) populations model for describing…

As the second wave in India mitigates, COVID-19 has now infected about 29 million patients countrywide, leading to more than 350 thousand people dead. As the infections surged, the strain on the medical infrastructure in the country became…

We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation method for COVID-19 forecasting. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated and the transmission and epidemic models…

The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of Covid-19 in Spain in the period 01-31-2020 / 06-01-2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality…

The global pandemic caused by COVID-19 affects our lives in all aspects. As of September 11, more than 28 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 infection, and more than 911,000 people have lost their lives in this virus battle.…

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…

To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…

In this paper, we apply statistical methods for functional data to explain the heterogeneity in the evolution of number of deaths of Covid-19 over different regions. We treat the cumulative daily number of deaths in a specific region as a…

Forecasting new cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths is an important part of infectious disease surveillance and helps guide health officials in implementing effective countermeasures. For disease surveillance in the U.S.,…

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…

COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…

We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apple's mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical…

This article presents a new model to predict the evolution of infective diseases under uncertainty or low-quality information, just as it has happened in the initial scenario during the CoVid-19 spread in China and Europe. The model has…

The ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. It has already affected more than 300,000 people, with the number of deaths nearing 13000 across the world. As it has been posing a huge…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…