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We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-02-28 Zhihua Liu , Pierre Magal , Ousmane Seydi , Glenn Webb

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-05 Faical Ndairou , Ivan Area , Juan J. Nieto , Delfim F. M. Torres

We present Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) statistics in China dataset: daily statistics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China at the city/county level. For each city/country, we include the six most important numbers for epidemic research:…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-08 Wenyuan Liu , Peter Tsung-Wen Yen , Siew Ann Cheong

The ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. It has already affected more than 300,000 people, with the number of deaths nearing 13000 across the world. As it has been posing a huge…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-25 Soudeep Deb , Manidipa Majumdar

The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-01 Anis Koubaa

Human civilization is experiencing a critical situation that presents itself for a new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This virus emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei, China. The grim fact of COVID-19 is, it is highly…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-08-25 Bikash Chandra Singh , Zulfikar Alom , Mohammad Muntasir Rahman , Mrinal Kanti Baowaly , Mohammad Abdul Azim

Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called 2019--nCoV, is reported from China and later other parts of the world. Since January 21, WHO reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-02-11 Thomas Götz

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-15 Giorgio Sonnino , Pasquale Nardone

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Rahul Mishra , Hari Prabhat Gupta , Tanima Dutta

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-18 Tanujit Chakraborty , Indrajit Ghosh

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model. Initially, a model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-27 Pedro V. Savi , Marcelo A. Savi , Beatriz Borges

In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-22 Duccio Fanelli , Francesco Piazza

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-10-13 Tanujit Chakraborty , Indrajit Ghosh , Tirna Mahajan , Tejasvi Arora

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-21 Sk Shahid Nadim , Indrajit Ghosh , Joydev Chattopadhyay

Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-08 Ralph Brinks , Annika Hoyer

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was found in a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. WHO officially named this coronavirus as COVID-19. Since the first patient was hospitalized on December 12, 2019, China has reported a total of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-18 Lin Jia , Kewen Li , Yu Jiang , Xin Guo , Ting zhao

The outbreak of novel coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan has attracted worldwide attention. Here, we propose a generalized SEIR model to analyze this epidemic. Based on the public data of National Health Commission of China…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-26 Liangrong Peng , Wuyue Yang , Dongyan Zhang , Changjing Zhuge , Liu Hong

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-17 Vasiliki Bitsouni , Nikolaos Gialelis , Ioannis G. Stratis

The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-27 Ryad Ghanam , Edward L. Boone , Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam

During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…

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