Related papers: Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mi…
The present ongoing global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus is creating havoc across the world. The absence of any vaccine as well as any definitive drug to cure, has made the situation very grave. Therefore only few effective tools are…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line…
This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…
Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and quarantine of close contacts - often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy - is one of the cornerstone measures of…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is being responded with various methods, applying vaccines, experimental treatment options, total lockdowns or partial curfews. Weekend curfews is one of the methods to reduce the amount of infected persons and…
The spread of infectious diseases is a major challenge in our contemporary world, especially after the recent outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The quarantine strategy is one of the important intervention measures to control…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing in mitigating or suppressing epidemic outbreaks, in combination with or as an alternative to quarantines and global lockdowns. We study these intervention methods on a network-based SEIR…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
Most countries have started vaccinating people against COVID-19. However, due to limited production capacities and logistical challenges it will take months/years until herd immunity is achieved. Therefore, vaccination and social distancing…
Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths is steadily decreasing. This fact, together with…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
Until a vaccine or therapy is found against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, reaching herd immunity appears to be the only mid-term option. However, if the number of infected individuals decreases and eventually fades only beyond this threshold,…
During the COVID-19 crisis, policymakers have implemented "social bubble" merging strategies, which allowed people from different households to meet and interact. Although these measures can mitigate the negative effects of extreme…
There are multiple testing methods to ascertain an infection in an individual and they vary in their performances, cost and delay. Unfortunately, better performing tests are sometimes costlier and time consuming and can only be done for a…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…
The COVID-19 pandemic began over two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from these past…
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has since spread around the globe, claiming more than 69,000 lives by the time this protocol…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where…