Related papers: Metropolitan-scale COVID-19 outbreaks: how similar…

The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on…

We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…

In this study, we construct a series of evolving epidemic networks by measuring the correlations of daily COVID-19 cases time series among 3,105 counties in the United States. Remarkably, through quantitative analysis of the spatial…

The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved over time through multiple spatial and temporal dynamics. The varying extent of interactions among different geographical areas can result to a complex pattern of spreading so that influences between these…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model individually on each municipality. These are all covered by the same health system and, in the post-lockdown phase we focus…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

The global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has followed complex pathways, largely attributed to the high virus infectivity, human travel patterns, and the implementation of multiple mitigation measures. The resulting geographic patterns…

Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…

The existence of an exponential growth phase during early stages of a pandemic is often taken for granted. However, for the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic, the early exponential phase lasted only for about six days, while the quadratic…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many data analyses have been done. Some of them are based on the classical epidemiological approach that assumes an exponential growth, but a few studies report that a power-law scaling may provide a better…

Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing…