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We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

Air traffic controllers benefit from referencing historical dates with similar complex air traffic conditions to identify potential management measures and their effects, which is critical for understanding air transportation system laws…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-12 Wei Sun , Zi-Feng Yi , Zhi-Qiang Feng , Ji Ma , Ruo-shi Yang

Reliable estimates of typical travel times allow road users to forward plan journeys to minimise travel time, potentially increasing overall system efficiency. On busy highways, however, congestion events can cause large, short-term spikes…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-05-03 Alvaro Cabrejas Egea , Colm Connaughton

Periodic timetables are widely adopted in passenger railway operations due to their regular service patterns and well-coordinated train connections. However, fluctuations in passenger demand require varying train services across different…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-14 Zhiyuan Yao , Anita Schöbel , Lei Nie , Sven Jäger

The estimation of commuting flows at different spatial scales is a fundamental problem for different areas of study. Many current methods rely on parameters requiring calibration from empirical trip volumes. Their values are often not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-07-24 Yingxiang Yang , Carlos Herrera , Nathan Eagle , Marta C. Gonzalez

The rise in urbanization throughout the United States (US) in recent years has required urban planners and transportation engineers to have greater consideration for the transportation services available to residents of a metropolitan…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-18 Armstrong Aboah , Lydia Johnson , Setul Shah

Forecasting the flow of crowds is of great importance to traffic management and public safety, yet a very challenging task affected by many complex factors, such as inter-region traffic, events and weather. In this paper, we propose a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Junbo Zhang , Yu Zheng , Dekang Qi

This is the preprint version of our paper on 2015 IEEE Computational Intelligence and Virtual Environments for Measurement Systems and Applications (CIVEMSA). There are lacks of integrated analysis and visual display of multiple real-time…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-08-17 Zhihan Lv , Xiaoming Li , Jinxing Hu , Ling Yin , Baoyun Zhang , Shengzhong Feng

Understanding the relation of events plays an important role in different domains, such as identifying the reasons for users' certain actions from application logs as well as explaining sports players' behaviors according to historical…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-08-28 Xiao Xie , Moqi He , Yingcai Wu

Accurate short-term passenger flow prediction in urban rail transit stations has great benefits for reasonably allocating resources, easing congestion, and reducing operational risks. However, compared with data-rich stations, the passenger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Kuo Han , Jinlei Zhang , Chunqi Zhu , Lixing Yang , Xiaoyu Huang , Songsong Li

Two apparently unrelated fields -- normalizing flows and causality -- have recently received considerable attention in the machine learning community. In this work, we highlight an intrinsic correspondence between a simple family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-25 Ilyes Khemakhem , Ricardo Pio Monti , Robert Leech , Aapo Hyvärinen

Understanding the link between urban planning and commuting flows is crucial for guiding urban development and policymaking. This research, bridging computer science and urban studies, addresses the challenge of integrating these fields…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Yan Luo , Zhuoyue Wan , Yuzhong Chen , Gengchen Mai , Fu-lai Chung , Kent Larson

Generating safety-critical scenarios, which are crucial yet difficult to collect, provides an effective way to evaluate the robustness of autonomous driving systems. However, the diversity of scenarios and efficiency of generation methods…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Wenhao Ding , Haohong Lin , Bo Li , Ding Zhao

Line planning in public transport is the strategic problem of selecting lines and their operating frequencies. This problem is important as it defines the passenger service, based on available connections and expected travel times, and…

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

The paper introduces a novel topological method for prediction and modeling for a nonlinear time--series that exhibit recurring patterns. According to the model, global manifold of the reconstructed state--space can be approximated by a few…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-11-21 Sajini Anand P S , Prabhakar G Vaidya

Walking and cycling, commonly referred to as active travel, have become integral components of modern transport planning. Recently, there has been growing recognition of the substantial role that active travel can play in making cities more…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-05-06 Ivann Schlosser , Valentina Marín Maureira , Richard Milton , Elsa Arcaute , Michael Batty

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-31 Alireza Nejadettehad , Hamid Mahini , Behnam Bahrak

Over the past decade the rate of care unit (CU) use in the United States has been increasing. With an aging population and ever-growing demand for medical care, effective management of patients' transitions among different care facilities…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Hongteng Xu , Weichang Wu , Shamim Nemati , Hongyuan Zha

In autonomous mobility-on-demand systems, effectively managing vehicle flows to mitigate induced congestion and ensure efficient operations is imperative for system performance and positive customer experience. Against this background, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-25 Antonio Coppola , Gerhard Hiermann , Dario Paccagnan , Maximilian Schiffer