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This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and numerical simulations related to the coronavirus dynamics. A description is developed based on the framework of susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model. Initially, a model…
COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
During the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative pathogen of COVID-19. Among those NPIs, quarantine measures were…
The spread of COVID-19 has brought challenges to health, social and economic systems around the world. With little to no prior immunity in the global population transmission has been driven primarily by human interaction. However, as with…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic contagion process(2P-DCP), for modelling the epidemic contagion of COVID-19 and investigating the lockdown effect based on the dynamic…
Recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 has affected all of our lives in one way or the other. While medical researchers are working hard to find a cure and doctors/nurses to attend the affected individuals, measures such as…
In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed,…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…
Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts,…
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…
The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management,…
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…
Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported…
In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
Masks are used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to limit transmission and save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research about the impact of mask-wearing in the COVID-19 pandemic has raised formidable interest across…
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic…
In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…