Related papers: Covid19: unless one gets everyone to act, policies…
Social distancing reduces infectious disease transmission by limiting contact frequency and proximity within a community. However, compliance varies due to its impact on daily life. This paper explores the effects of compliance on social…
Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…
Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
The COVID-19 vaccine reduces infection risk: even if one contracts COVID-19, the probability of complications like death or hospitalization is lower. However, vaccination may prompt people to decrease preventive behaviors, such as staying…
Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…
Social distancing is the primary policy prescription for combating the COVID-19 pandemic, and has been widely adopted in Europe and North America. We estimate the value of disease avoidance using an epidemiological model that projects the…
As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…
Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude, the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A power-law…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
In this study, we propose a clustering-based approach on time-series data to capture COVID-19 spread patterns in the early period of the pandemic. We analyze the spread dynamics based on the early and post stages of COVID-19 for different…
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has led to a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions being implemented around the world to curb transmission. However, the economic and social costs of some of these…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance…
The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…
The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the 21st century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come…
This paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by US states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into…
Social dilemmas where the good of a group is at odds with individual interests are usually considered as static -- the dilemma does not change over time. In the COVID-19 pandemic, social dilemmas occurred in the mitigation of epidemic…
During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/2020, authorities have used temporary ad-hoc policy measures, such as lockdowns and mass quarantines, to slow its transmission. However, the consequences of widespread use of these unprecedented measures…
Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological…