Related papers: Asymptomatic infectives and $R_0$ for COVID
In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we…
We propose a novel approach to approximate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ as spectral radius of the Next-Generation Operator in time-periodic population models by characterizing the latter via evolution semigroups. Once birth/infection…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Among many symptoms, cough, fever and tiredness are the most common. People over 60 years old and with…
Objectives.--To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Methods.--Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
A key challenge in estimating the infection fatality rate (IFR) -- and its relation with various factors of interest -- is determining the total number of cases. The total number of cases is not known because not everyone is tested, but…
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward…
Objective: To conduct an early estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) induced by government interference, and to project resulting day to day number of in-patients, ICU-patients and cumulative number of deaths in a Danish…
A transmission interval for an infectious disease is important to understand epidemic processes in complex networks. The transmission interval is defined as a time interval between one person's infection and their infection to another…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…
A pulse vaccination SIR model with periodic infection rate $\beta (t)$ have been proposed and studied. The basic reproductive number $R_0$ is defined. The dynamical behaviors of the model are analyzed with the help of persistence,…
In this paper, a generalized fractional-order SEIR model is proposed, denoted by SEIQRP model, which has a basic guiding significance for the prediction of the possible outbreak of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and other insect diseases…
Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed…
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…
A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…
We propose a new mathematical model to study the coinfection dynamics of COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia. Our model includes two infection ways for pneumonia, corresponding to community-acquired and hospital-acquired infections. We show…
Objectives: We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and human mobility…