Related papers: Dynamic Competing Risk Modeling COVID-19 in a Pand…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…
It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…
A novel coronavirus disease has emerged (later named COVID-19) and caused the world to enter a new reality, with many direct and indirect factors influencing it. Some are human-controllable (e.g. interventional policies, mobility and the…
We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…
Severe infectious diseases such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pose a huge threat to public health. Stringent control measures, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, while having significant effects, also bring huge economic…
Pandemics, notably the recent COVID-19 outbreak, have impacted both public health and the global economy. A profound understanding of disease progression and efficient response strategies is thus needed to prepare for potential future…
We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape…
Covid-19 is raging a devastating trail with the highest mortality-to-infected ratio ever for a pandemic. Lack of vaccine and therapeutic has rendered social exclusion through lockdown as the singular mode of containment. Harnessing the…
The scope of this work is to serve as a guiding tool against subjective estimations on real pandemic situations (mainly due to the inability to acquire objective real data over whole populations). The previously introduced model of closed…
We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…
The pandemic of COVID-19 has caused severe public health consequences around the world. Many interventions of COVID-19 have been implemented. It is of great public health and societal importance to evaluate the effects of interventions in…
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
COVID-19 is an acute respiratory disease that has been classified as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Characterization of this disease is still in its early stages. However, it is known to have high mortality rates, particularly…
Background: By the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to…