Related papers: Supplementary Material for CDC Submission No. 1461
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the…
While significant progress has been made in specifying neural networks capable of representing uncertainty, deep networks still often suffer from overconfidence and misaligned predictive distributions. Existing approaches for measuring this…
As one of the central tasks in machine learning, regression finds lots of applications in different fields. An existing common practice for solving regression problems is the mean square error (MSE) minimization approach or its regularized…
Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…
Existing error-bound-based analyses for stochastic algorithms that exhibit certain descent properties, such as randomized coordinate descent and randomized projection methods, are often limited in scope and typically lead to overly…
This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the…
In this work, we study the weighted empirical risk minimization (weighted ERM) schema, in which an additional data-dependent weight function is incorporated when the empirical risk function is being minimized. We show that under a general…
Let $X\in \mathbb{R}^p$ and $Y\in \mathbb{R}$ be two random variables. We estimate the conditional covariance matrix $\mathrm{Cov}\left(\mathrm{E}\left[\boldsymbol{X}\vert Y\right]\right)$ applying a plug-in kernel-based algorithm to its…
Gaussian process regression has proven very powerful in statistics, machine learning and inverse problems. A crucial aspect of the success of this methodology, in a wide range of applications to complex and real-world problems, is…
Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk and Conditional Autoregressive Expectile have become two popular approaches for direct measurement of market risk. Since their introduction several improvements both in the Bayesian and in the…
We study the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for mixtures of linear regressions with an arbitrary number $k$ of components. We show that as long as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is $\tilde{\Omega}(k)$,…
In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…
Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…
Probabilistic values, including Shapley values and semivalues, provide a model-agnostic framework to attribute the behavior of a black-box model to data points or features, with a wide range of applications including explainable artificial…
We consider the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a finite mixture model from independent order statistics arising from imperfect ranked set sampling designs. As a cost-effective method, ranked set sampling enables us to incorporate…
We consider inference on a scalar regression coefficient under a constraint on the magnitude of the control coefficients. A class of estimators based on a regularized propensity score regression is shown to exactly solve a tradeoff between…
We consider the estimation of a scalar parameter, when two estimators are available. The first is always consistent. The second is inconsistent in general, but has a smaller asymptotic variance than the first, and may be consistent if an…
Semi-supervised (SS) inference has received much attention in recent years. Apart from a moderate-sized labeled data, L, the SS setting is characterized by an additional, much larger sized, unlabeled data, U. The setting of |U| >> |L|,…