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Networks representation aims to encode vertices into a low-dimensional space, while preserving the original network structures and properties. Most existing methods focus on static network structure without considering temporal dynamics.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Ruixuan Han , Hongxiang Li , Bin Xie

We investigate spatio-temporal event analysis using point processes. Inferring the dynamics of event sequences spatiotemporally has many practical applications including crime prediction, social media analysis, and traffic forecasting. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Fatih Ilhan , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

This paper introduces the Hawkes skeleton and the Hawkes graph. These objects summarize the branching structure of a multivariate Hawkes point process in a compact, yet meaningful way. We demonstrate how graph-theoretic vocabulary…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-14 Paul Embrechts , Matthias Kirchner

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Manisha Dubey , Ragja Palakkadavath , P. K. Srijith

Knowledge graph reasoning is a critical task in natural language processing. The task becomes more challenging on temporal knowledge graphs, where each fact is associated with a timestamp. Most existing methods focus on reasoning at past…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-08 Woojeong Jin , Meng Qu , Xisen Jin , Xiang Ren

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

There has been an increasing interest in inferring future links on temporal knowledge graphs (KG). While links on temporal KGs vary continuously over time, the existing approaches model the temporal KGs in discrete state spaces. To this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Zhen Han , Zifeng Ding , Yunpu Ma , Yujia Gu , Volker Tresp

Self-exciting processes of Hawkes type have been used to model various phenomena including earthquakes, neural activities, and views of online videos. Studies of temporal networks have revealed that sequences of social interevent times for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-06-05 Naoki Masuda , Taro Takaguchi , Nobuo Sato , Kazuo Yano

Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-13 Soeren Nolting , Zhen Han , Volker Tresp

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

Embedding learning, a.k.a. representation learning, has been shown to be able to model large-scale semantic knowledge graphs. A key concept is a mapping of the knowledge graph to a tensor representation whose entries are predicted by models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-23 Cristóbal Esteban , Volker Tresp , Yinchong Yang , Stephan Baier , Denis Krompaß

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-08 Alexander Kreiss , Enno Mammen , Wolfgang Polonik

In this work, we propose to catch the complexity of the membrane potential's dynamic of a motoneuron between its spikes, taking into account the spikes from other neurons around. Our approach relies on two types of data: extracellular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion , François Gindraud , Sarah Lemler

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

It is often assumed that events cannot occur simultaneously when modelling data with point processes. This raises a problem as real-world data often contains synchronous observations due to aggregation or rounding, resulting from…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Leigh Shlomovich , Edward A. K. Cohen , Niall Adams

Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Louis Davis , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

Temporal knowledge graph, serving as an effective way to store and model dynamic relations, shows promising prospects in event forecasting. However, most temporal knowledge graph reasoning methods are highly dependent on the recurrence or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-05 Yi Xu , Junjie Ou , Hui Xu , Luoyi Fu

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Yan Wang , Zhixuan Chu , Tao Zhou , Caigao Jiang , Hongyan Hao , Minjie Zhu , Xindong Cai , Qing Cui , Longfei Li , James Y Zhang , Siqiao Xue , Jun Zhou

Event schemas encode knowledge of stereotypical structures of events and their connections. As events unfold, schemas are crucial to act as a scaffolding. Previous work on event schema induction focuses either on atomic events or linear…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Manling Li , Sha Li , Zhenhailong Wang , Lifu Huang , Kyunghyun Cho , Heng Ji , Jiawei Han , Clare Voss