Related papers: A phenomenological approach to COVID-19 spread in …
This paper investigates various ways in which a pandemic such as the novel coronavirus, could be predicted using different mathematical models. It also studies the various ways in which these models could be depicted using various…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Understanding influencing factors is essential for the surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases, and the factors are likely to vary spatially and temporally as the disease progresses. Taking daily cases and deaths data during the…
Epidemic spread in a population is traditionally modeled via compartmentalized models which represent the free evolution of disease in absence of any intervention policies. In addition, these models assume full observability of disease…
Human civilization is experiencing a critical situation that presents itself for a new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This virus emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei, China. The grim fact of COVID-19 is, it is highly…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
Understanding the spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 is crucial for informed decision-making and resource allocation. A critical component of disease behavior is the velocity with which disease spreads, defined as the rate of…
Epidemiological models, traditionally used to study disease spread, can effectively analyze mob behavior on social media by treating ideas, sentiments, or behaviors as ``contagions" that propagate through user networks. In this research, we…
The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities in China in 2019 has become a global pandemic as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in the first quarter of 2020 . The delay in diagnosis, limited hospital…
The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the 21st century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come…
The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage,…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is unfolding as a major international crisis whose influence extends to every aspect of our daily lives. Effective testing allows infected individuals to be quarantined, thus reducing the…
In individual SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, the count of confirmed cases and deaths follow a Gompertz growth function for locations of very different sizes. This lack of dependence on region size leads us to hypothesize that virus spread depends on…
We introduce a deterministic model that partitions the total population into the susceptible, infected, quarantined, and those traced after exposure, the recovered and the deceased. We hypothesize 'accessible population for transmission of…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…
Based on the SIRD-model a new model including time-delay is proposed for a description of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. All data were analysed by representing all quantities as a function of the susceptible…
Researchers have shown that even simple empirical models stemming from biological growth modeling have the potential to provide useful information on the development and severity of ongoing epidemics since they can be employed as tools for…