Related papers: On the Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy: a Follow up…

We employ methods largely exploited in Physics, in the analysis of the evolution of dynamical systems, to study the pattern of the Covid-19 infection in Italy. The techniques we employ are based on the use of logistic function and of its…

The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19…

We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…

An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our…

In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…

We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…

This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional…

While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical…

In this note, we describe simple generalizations of the basic SIR model for epidemic, in case of a multi-region scenario, to be used for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Italy.

The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…

In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a…

During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor the effectiveness of measures taken by governments on the course of the epidemic. Here we show that there is already a sufficient amount of data collected in Italy to predict the…

As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official…

Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the…

In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…