Related papers: Improved Earthquake Forecasting Model Based on Lon…

Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…

Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock,…

Using the ETAS branching model of triggered seismicity, we apply the formalism of generating probability functions to calculate exactly the average difference between the magnitude of a mainshock and the magnitude of its largest aftershock…

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…

The development of new earthquake forecasting models is often motivated by one of the following complementary goals: to gain new insights into the governing physics and to produce improved forecasts quantified by objective metrics. Often,…

We propose a new physically-based ``multifractal stress activation'' model of earthquake interaction and triggering based on two simple ingredients: (i) a seismic rupture results from activated processes giving an exponential dependence on…

Recent observation studies have revealed that earthquakes are classified into several different categories. Each category might be characterized by the unique statistical feature in the time series, but the present understanding is still…

Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…

A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…

Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering…

Short and long range interactions between earthquakes are attracting increasing interest. Scale invariant properties of seismicity in time, space and energy argue for the presence of complex triggering mechanisms where, like a cascade…

Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…

The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…

Many time series in natural and social sciences can be seen as resulting from an interplay between exogenous influences and an endogenous organization. We use a simple (ETAS) model of events occurring sequentially, in which future events…

A method that exactly knows the earthquakes beforehand and can generalize them cannot still been developed. However, earthquakes are tried to be predicted through numerous methods. One of these methods, artificial neural networks give…

The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness…

Since the beginning of this century, the significant advancements in artificial intelligence and neural networks have offered the potential to bring new transformations to short-term earthquake prediction research. However, currently, there…

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…

Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…