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In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based surrogate modeling framework for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic systems. Our first goal is to perform data mining on the available simulation data to identify a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Dimitris G. Giovanis , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis , Michael D. Shields

In this paper, a novel surrogate model based on the Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps) and utilizing geometric harmonics is developed for predicting the response of engineering systems and complex physical phenomena. The method utilizes…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-06-28 Ketson R. M. dos Santos , Dimitrios G. Giovanis , Katiana Kontolati , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Michael D. Shields

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Shane A. McQuarrie , Anirban Chaudhuri , Karen E. Willcox , Mengwu Guo

Engineers widely use Gaussian process regression framework to construct surrogate models aimed to replace computationally expensive physical models while exploring design space. Thanks to Gaussian process properties we can use both samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-14 Evgeny Burnaev , Alexey Zaytsev

Surrogate models have shown to be an extremely efficient aid in solving engineering problems that require repeated evaluations of an expensive computational model. They are built by sparsely evaluating the costly original model and have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-01 M. Moustapha , B. Sudret

Many real-world applications demand accurate and fast predictions, as well as reliable uncertainty estimates. However, quantifying uncertainty on high-dimensional predictions is still a severely under-investigated problem, especially when…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Saurabh Deshpande , Hussein Rappel , Mark Hobbs , Stéphane P. A. Bordas , Jakub Lengiewicz

Generating simulated training data needed for constructing sufficiently accurate surrogate models to be used for efficient optimization or parameter identification can incur a huge computational effort in the offline phase. We consider a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-03 Phillip Semler , Martin Weiser

Gaussian process surrogates are a popular alternative to directly using computationally expensive simulation models. When the simulation output consists of many responses, dimension-reduction techniques are often employed to construct these…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-04 Moses Y-H. Chan , Matthew Plumlee , Stefan M. Wild

We introduce a scalable Gaussian process (GP) framework with deep product kernels for data-driven learning of parametrized spatio-temporal fields over fixed or parameter-dependent domains. The proposed framework learns a continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Srinath Dama , Prasanth B. Nair

Gaussian variational approximation is a popular methodology to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference especially in high dimensional and large data settings. To control the computational cost while being able to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Bingxin Zhou , Junbin Gao , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Richard Gerlach

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-20 Steven Atkinson , Nicholas Zabaras

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jungho Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ziqi Wang

Gaussian process regression is widely applied in computational science and engineering for surrogate modeling owning to its kernel-based and probabilistic nature. In this work, we propose a Bayesian approach that integrates the variability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Dongwei Ye , Weihao Yan , Christoph Brune , Mengwu Guo

Posterior sampling by Monte Carlo methods provides a more comprehensive solution approach to inverse problems than computing point estimates such as the maximum posterior using optimization methods, at the expense of usually requiring many…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Paolo Villani , Daniel Andrés-Arcones , Jörg F. Unger , Martin Weiser

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Leen Alawieh , Jonathan Goodman , John B. Bell

Multiscale modeling is a systematic approach to describe the behavior of complex systems by coupling models from different scales. The approach has been demonstrated to be very effective in areas of science as diverse as materials science,…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Ting Wang , Kenneth W. Leiter , Petr Plechac , Jaroslaw Knap

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-18 Katiana Kontolati , Dimitrios Loukrezis , Ketson R. M. dos Santos , Dimitrios G. Giovanis , Michael D. Shields

It is often of interest to infer lower-dimensional structure underlying complex data. As a flexible class of non-linear structures, it is common to focus on Riemannian manifolds. Most existing manifold learning algorithms replace the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-27 David B Dunson , Nan Wu

In a task where many similar inverse problems must be solved, evaluating costly simulations is impractical. Therefore, replacing the model $y$ with a surrogate model $y_s$ that can be evaluated quickly leads to a significant speedup. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Phillip Semler , Martin Weiser
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