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This article continues our analysis of the gold price dynamics that was published in December 2010 (abs/1012.4118) and forecasted the possibility of the "burst of the gold bubble" in April - June 2011. Our recent analysis suggests the…
We give emphasis on the use of chaos-based rigorous nonlinear technique called Visibility Graph Analysis, to study one economic time series - gold price of USA. This method can offer reliable results with fiinite data. This paper reports…
This paper provides an innovative perspective on the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven. We use a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to capture the dependence structure between gold returns and changes in uncertainty under…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…
Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for…
This study examines the monthly returns in Turkish and American stock market indices to investigate whether these markets experience abnormal returns during some months of the calendar year. The data used in this research includes 212…
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable…
We decompose returns for portfolios of bottom-ranked, lower-priced assets relative to the market into rank crossovers and changes in the relative price of those bottom-ranked assets. This decomposition is general and consistent with…
Long-range correlation and fluctuation in the gold market time series of world's two leading gold consuming countries, namely China and India, are studied. For both the market series during the period 1985-2013 we observe a long-range…
Cryptocurrencies are considered the latest innovation in finance with considerable impact across social, technological, and economic dimensions. This new class of financial assets has also motivated a myriad of scientific investigations…
Traders in a market typically have widely different, private information on the return of an asset. The equilibrium price of the asset may reflect this information more accurately if the number of traders is large enough compared to the…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis…
We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…
Based on 1-minute price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly-emerging Bitcoin (BTC) market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst…
Stock markets can become inefficient due to calendar anomalies known as day-of-the-week effect. Calendar anomalies are well-known in financial literature, but the phenomena remain to be explored in econophysics. In this paper we use…
The imbalance of buying and selling functions profoundly in the formation of market trends, however, a fine-granularity investigation of the imbalance is still missing. This paper investigates a unique transaction dataset that enables us to…
Gold and bitcoin are not new to us, but with limited cash and time, given only the past stream of the daily price of gold and bitcoin, it is a kind of new problem for us to develop a certain model and determine the best strategy to get the…