Related papers: Is a COVID19 Quarantine Justified in Chile or USA …

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…

When we face patients arriving to a hospital suffering from the effects of some illness, one of the main problems we can encounter is evaluating whether or not said patients are going to require intensive care in the near future. This…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning technics and SIR models (deterministic and stochastic cases) with numerical approximations to predict the number of cases infected with the COVID-19, for both in few days and the following three…

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first…

Mexico, like the rest of the world, is currently facing the The COVID-19 pandemic. Given the size of its territory, the efforts to contain the disease have involved both national and regional measures. For this work, the curves of daily new…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

COVID-19, also known as Novel Coronavirus Disease, is a highly contagious disease that first surfaced in China in late 2019. SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus that belongs to the vast family of coronaviruses that causes this disease. The sickness…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has led to a treacherous and devastating catastrophe for humanity. At the time of writing, no specific antivirus drugs or vaccines are recommended to control infection…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the behavioral response to reported case numbers changed drastically over time. While a few dozen cases were enough to trigger government-induced and voluntary contact reduction in early 2020, less than a year…

COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the…

In 2020, COVID-19 became the chief concern of the world and is still reflected widely in all social networks. Each day, users post millions of tweets and comments on this subject, which contain significant implicit information about the…

Nowadays, the epidemic of COVID-19 in China is under control. However, the epidemic are developing rapidly around the world. Due to the normal migration of population, China is facing high risk from imported cases. The potential specific…

The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on…

The diffusion of COVID19 is calling governments and public health authorities to interventions that limit new infections and contain the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people,…

It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…

In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon…

Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19…

By the end of 2021, COVID-19 had spread to over 230 countries, with over 5.4 million deaths. To contain its spread, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, notably contact tracing and self-quarantine policies. However,…

The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…