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This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

Differential equations are commonly used to model dynamical deterministic systems in applications. When statistical parameter estimation is required to calibrate theoretical models to data, classical statistical estimators are often…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas J-B Brunel , Quentin Clairon , Florence d'Alche-Buc

This paper introduces diagnostic tests for the nature of lack of fit in ordinary differential equation models (ODEs) proposed for data. We present a hierarchy of three possible sources of lack of fit: unaccounted-for stochastic variation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-18 Giles Hooker , Stephen P. Ellner

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are foundational in modeling intricate dynamics across a gamut of scientific disciplines. Yet, a possibility to represent a single phenomenon through multiple ODE models, driven by different…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-01 Itai Dattner , Shota Gugushvili , Oleksandr Laskorunskyi

In this paper we present recent results on parametric analysis of biological models. The underlying method is based on the algorithms for computing trajectory sets of hybrid systems with polynomial dynamics. The method is then applied to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2012-08-21 Romain Testylier , Thao Dang

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

The research described in this paper is motivated by model checking for parametric single-index models with diverging number of predictors. To construct a test statistic, we first study the asymptotic property of the estimators of involved…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-26 Falong Tan , Lixing Zhu

Biological systems are often modeled as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with time-invariant parameters. However, cell signaling events or pharmacological interventions may alter the cellular state and induce multi-mode…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-28 Bing Liu

Information in the time distribution of points in a state space reconstructed from observed data yields a test for ``nonstationarity''. Framed in terms of a statistical hypothesis test, this numerical algorithm can discern whether some…

chao-dyn · Physics 2008-02-03 Matthew B. Kennel

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-06-02 Igor L. Kheifets

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Patrick E. McSharry , Leonard A. Smith

The problem of testing for the parametric form of the conditional variance is considered in a fully nonparametric regression model. A test statistic based on a weighted $L_2$-distance between the empirical characteristic functions of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-24 Juan Carlos Pardo-Fernandez , M. Dolores Jimenez-Gamero

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Quantitative properties of stochastic systems are usually specified in logics that allow one to compare the measure of executions satisfying certain temporal properties with thresholds. The model checking problem for stochastic systems with…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2010-05-11 Axel Legay , Benoit Delahaye

The identification of a mathematical dynamics model is a crucial step in the designing process of a controller. However, it is often very difficult to identify the system's governing equations, especially in complex environments that…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-01 Tobias Nagel , Marco F. Huber

In this paper, in order to test whether changes have occurred in a nonlinear parametric regression, we propose a nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood. Firstly, we test the null hypothesis of no-change against the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-22 Gabriela Ciuperca , Zahraa Salloum

We formulate nonparametric and semiparametric hypothesis testing of multivariate stationary linear time series in a unified fashion and propose new test statistics based on estimators of the spectral density matrix. The limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-03 Yoshihiro Yajima , Yasumasa Matsuda

In this paper we investigate the applicability of standard model checking approaches to verifying properties in probabilistic programming. As the operational model for a standard probabilistic program is a potentially infinite parametric…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2016-07-28 Nils Jansen , Christian Dehnert , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Lukas Westhofen

Structural Causal Models are widely used in causal modelling, but how they relate to other modelling tools is poorly understood. In this paper we provide a novel perspective on the relationship between Ordinary Differential Equations and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-31 Paul K. Rubenstein , Stephan Bongers , Bernhard Schoelkopf , Joris M. Mooij

Numerous studies have been devoted to the estimation and inference problems for functional linear models (FLM). However, few works focus on model checking problem that ensures the reliability of results. Limited tests in this area do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Enze Shi , Yi Liu , Ke Sun , Lingzhu Li , Linglong Kong
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