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The marked Hawkes risk process is a compound point process for which the occurrence and amplitude of past events impact the future. Thanks to its autoregressive properties, it found applications in various fields such as neuosciences,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-11 Laure Coutin , Mahmoud Khabou

Recent work has suggested using Monte Carlo methods based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to sample from target distributions of interest. PDMPs are non-reversible continuous-time processes endowed with momentum, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-28 Paul Fearnhead , Sebastiano Grazzi , Chris Nemeth , Gareth O. Roberts

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have emerged as the primary framework for predicting sequences of events that occur at irregular time intervals, but their sequential nature can hamper performance for long-horizon forecasts. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Mai Zeng , Florence Regol , Mark Coates

This paper provides an elementary, self-contained analysis of diffusion-based sampling methods for generative modeling. In contrast to existing approaches that rely on continuous-time processes and then discretize, our treatment works…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Galen Reeves , Henry D. Pfister

Mathematically modelling diffusive and advective transport of particles in heterogeneous layered media is important to many applications in computational, biological and medical physics. While deterministic continuum models of such…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-09-16 Elliot J. Carr

Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Feng Zhou , Quyu Kong , Yixuan Zhang , Cheng Feng , Jun Zhu

We present recent results on Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs), involved in biological modeling. PDMPs, first introduced in the probabilistic literature by Davis (1984), are a very general class of Markov processes and are…

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Rui Zhang , Christian Walder , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Young Lee , Kar Wai Lim , Cheng Soon Ong

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-03 Alain Durmus , Arnaud Guillin , Pierre Monmarché

Diffusion models for continuous state spaces based on Gaussian noising processes are now relatively well understood from both practical and theoretical perspectives. In contrast, results for diffusion models on discrete state spaces remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Giovanni Conforti , Alain Durmus , Le-Tuyet-Nhi Pham , Gael Raoul

In the present work we derive a Central Limit Theorem for sequences of Hilbert-valued Piecewise Deterministic Markov process models and their global fluctuations around their deterministic limit identified by the Law of Large Numbers. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-23 Martin G Riedler , Michele Thieullen

Monte Carlo simulations of systems of particles such as hard spheres or soft spheres with singular kernels can display around a phase transition prohibitively long convergence times when using traditional Hasting-Metropolis reversible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-10 Athina Monemvassitis , Arnaud Guillin , Manon Michel

This paper introduces Switching Processes, called SP. Their constructions are inspired by the PDMP's ones (PDMP stands for Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process). A Markov process, called the intrinsic process, replaces the PDMP's flow.…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-19 Christiane Cocozza-Thivent

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework for generative tasks in deep learning. They decompose generative modeling into two computational primitives: deterministic neural-network evaluation and stochastic sampling. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Nihal Sanjay Singh , Mazdak Mohseni-Rajaee , Shaila Niazi , Kerem Y. Camsari

Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-24 Hye-Won Kang , Thomas G. Kurtz , Lea Popovic

A biochemical network can be simulated by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) under well stirred reactor conditions, for large numbers of molecules, and frequent reactions. This is no longer a robust representation when some…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-17 Guilherme C. P. Innocentini , Arran Hodgkinson , Fernando Antoneli , Arnaud Debussche , Ovidiu Radulescu

This paper presents a rigorous mathematical analysis, alongside simulation studies, of a spatially extended stochastic electrophysiology model, the Hodgkin-Huxley model of the squid giant axon being a classical example. Although most…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-05 Wai-Tong Louis Fan , Joshua A. McGinnis , Yoichiro Mori

The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Sean D Lawley

We propose a diffusion approximation method to the continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that can be utilized to address autonomous navigation and control in unstructured off-road environments. In contrast to most…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Junhong Xu , Kai Yin , Zheng Chen , Jason M. Gregory , Ethan A. Stump , Lantao Liu