Related papers: COVID-19 attack rate increases with city size

We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…

In this paper, I study epidemic diffusion in a generalized spatial SEIRD model, where individuals are initially connected in a social or geographical network. As the virus spreads in the network, the structure of interactions between people…

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…

The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage,…

The diffusion of COVID19 is calling governments and public health authorities to interventions that limit new infections and contain the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people,…

Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…

COVID-19 has been affecting every aspect of societal life including human mobility since December, 2019. In this paper, we study the impact of COVID-19 on human mobility patterns at the state level within the United States. From the…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused more that 8 million infections as of middle June 2020. Recently, Brazil has become a new epicentre of COVID-19, while India and African region are potential epicentres. This study aims to…

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019-2020 (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This pathogenic virus is able to spread asymptotically during its incubation stage through a…

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, both voluntary changes in behavior and administrative restrictions on human interactions have occurred. These actions are intended to reduce the transmission rate of the severe acute respiratory…

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

We analyse the data for the global corona virus (COVID-19) outbreak using the results of a previously studied Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model of epidemic spreading on Euclidean networks. We also directly study the correlation of…

We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic. These networks reveal how…

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies…

Household size impacts the spread of respiratory infectious diseases: Larger households tend to boost transmission by acquiring external infections more frequently and subsequently transmitting them back into the community. Furthermore,…

In March of this year, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic and it continues to threaten public health. This global health crisis imposes limitations on daily movements, which have deteriorated every sector in our society. Understanding public…

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), emerged late December 2019 in China, is now rapidly spreading across the globe. At the time of writing this paper, the number of global confirmed cases has passed two millions and half with over…

Widespread growth signatures in COVID-19 confirmed case counts are reported, with sharp transitions between three distinct dynamical regimes (exponential, superlinear and sublinear). Through analytical and numerical analysis, a novel…