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Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks is a highly relevant problem which is essential to many applications. The two predominant paradigms to tackle this task are Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles. Despite some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem , Valentin Villecroze , Yixin Wang

Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been a well-known machine learning method for various applications such as uncertainty quantifications (UQ). However, GPR is inherently a data-driven method, which requires sufficiently large dataset.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Cheng Chang , Tieyong Zeng

Uncertainty estimation is essential for robust decision-making in the presence of ambiguous or out-of-distribution inputs. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are classical kernel-based models that offer principled uncertainty quantification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-30 Albert Saiapin , Kim Batselier

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Hanjing Wang , Dhiraj Joshi , Shiqiang Wang , Qiang Ji

Brain vessel segmentation of MR scans is a critical step in the diagnosis of cerebrovascular diseases. Due to the fine vessel structure, manual vessel segmentation is time consuming. Therefore, automatic deep learning (DL) based…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-31 Omini Rathore , Richard Paul , Abigail Morrison , Hanno Scharr , Elisabeth Pfaehler

Modeling data uncertainty is important for noisy images, but seldom explored for face recognition. The pioneer work, PFE, considers uncertainty by modeling each face image embedding as a Gaussian distribution. It is quite effective.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Jie Chang , Zhonghao Lan , Changmao Cheng , Yichen Wei

Multi-fidelity models are becoming more prevalent in engineering, particularly in aerospace, as they combine both the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models with the high accuracy of higher-fidelity simulations. Various…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Andrea Vaiuso , Gabriele Immordino , Marcello Righi , Andrea Da Ronch

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson

In automatic emotion recognition (AER), labels assigned by different human annotators to the same utterance are often inconsistent due to the inherent complexity of emotion and the subjectivity of perception. Though deterministic labels…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Wen Wu , Chao Zhang , Philip C. Woodland

We introduce NeuralSurv, the first deep survival model to incorporate Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our non-parametric, architecture-agnostic framework captures time-varying covariate-risk relationships in continuous time via a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Mélodie Monod , Alessandro Micheli , Samir Bhatt

Deep neural networks (DNN) are versatile parametric models utilised successfully in a diverse number of tasks and domains. However, they have limitations---particularly from their lack of robustness and over-sensitivity to out of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 John Mitros , Brian Mac Namee

Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Jakob Lindinger , David Reeb , Christoph Lippert , Barbara Rakitsch

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Deep neural network controllers for autonomous driving have recently benefited from significant performance improvements, and have begun deployment in the real world. Prior to their widespread adoption, safety guarantees are needed on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-24 Rhiannon Michelmore , Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Luca Cardelli , Yarin Gal , Marta Kwiatkowska

The problem of state estimation for unobservable distribution systems is considered. A deep learning approach to Bayesian state estimation is proposed for real-time applications. The proposed technique consists of distribution learning of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-26 Kursat Rasim Mestav , Jaime Luengo-Rozas , Lang Tong

Modern single-particle-tracking techniques produce extensive time-series of diffusive motion in a wide variety of systems, from single-molecule motion in living-cells to movement ecology. The quest is to decipher the physical mechanisms…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-09-14 Henrik Seckler , Ralf Metzler

Efficiently quantifying predictive uncertainty in medical images remains a challenge. While Bayesian neural networks (BNN) offer predictive uncertainty, they require substantial computational resources to train. Although Bayesian…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Zeinab Abboud , Herve Lombaert , Samuel Kadoury

We show how to treat systematic uncertainties using Bayesian deep networks for regression. First, we analyze how these networks separately trace statistical and systematic uncertainties on the momenta of boosted top quarks forming fat jets.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-12-23 Gregor Kasieczka , Michel Luchmann , Florian Otterpohl , Tilman Plehn

Uncertainty estimation is an essential step in the evaluation of the robustness for deep learning models in computer vision, especially when applied in risk-sensitive areas. However, most state-of-the-art deep learning models either fail to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-01-12 Lu Mi , Hao Wang , Yonglong Tian , Hao He , Nir Shavit