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Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter , Andrea Mercatanti

Data from both a randomized trial and an observational study are sometimes simultaneously available for evaluating the effect of an intervention. The randomized data typically allows for reliable estimation of average treatment effects but…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-01 David Cheng , Tianxi Cai

Many marketing applications, including credit card incentive programs, offer rewards to customers who exceed specific spending thresholds to encourage increased consumption. Quantifying the causal effect of these thresholds on customers is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Kohsuke Kubota , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We establish concentration rates for estimation of treatment effects in experiments that incorporate prior sources of information -- such as past pilots, related studies, or expert assessments -- whose external validity is uncertain. Each…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-24 Frederico Finan , Demian Pouzo

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Joseph Antonelli , Matthew Cefalu

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

In many settings, a data curator links records from two files to produce datasets that are shared with secondary analysts. Analysts use the linked files to estimate models of interest, such as regressions. Such two-stage approaches do not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Xueyan Hu , Jerome P. Reiter

Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-05 Arne Henningsen , Guy Low , David Wuepper , Tobias Dalhaus , Hugo Storm , Dagim Belay , Stefan Hirsch

We study identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment variable on a long-term outcome using data from an observational and an experimental domain. The observational data are subject to unobserved confounding. Furthermore,…

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for evaluating the efficacy of an intervention. However, there is often a trade-off between selecting the most scientifically relevant primary endpoint versus a less relevant, but more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Jack M. Wolf , Joseph S. Koopmeiners , David M. Vock

One obstacle to ``elevating" correlation to causation is the phenomenon of confounding, i.e., when a correlation between two variables exists because both variables are in fact caused by a third variable. The situation where the confounders…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-24 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Researchers often have to deal with heterogeneous population with mixed regression relationships, increasingly so in the era of data explosion. In such problems, when there are many candidate predictors, it is not only of interest to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-05 Yan Li , Chun Yu , Yize Zhao , Robert H. Aseltine , Weixin Yao , Kun Chen

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Causal inference from observational data can be viewed as a missing data problem arising from a hypothetical population-scale randomized trial matched to the observational study. This links a target trial protocol with a corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-27 Andrew Yiu , Edwin Fong , Stephen Walker , Chris Holmes

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Graham Van Goffrier , Lucas Maystre , Ciarán Gilligan-Lee

Most clinical trials involve the comparison of a new treatment to a control arm (e.g., the standard of care) and the estimation of a treatment effect. External data, including historical clinical trial data and real-world observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-17 Tianjian Zhou , Yuan Ji

Investigators often use multi-source data (e.g., multi-center trials, meta-analyses of randomized trials, pooled analyses of observational cohorts) to learn about the effects of interventions in subgroups of some well-defined target…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Guanbo Wang , Alexander Levis , Jon Steingrimsson , Issa Dahabreh