English
Related papers

Related papers: Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design for Implic…

200 papers

There is a growing trend in molecular and synthetic biology of using mechanistic (non machine learning) models to design biomolecular networks. Once designed, these networks need to be validated by experimental results to ensure the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-26 Ruby Sedgwick , John Goertz , Molly Stevens , Ruth Misener , Mark van der Wilk

We present a fully Bayesian sequential strategy for predicting the mean response surface of heteroscedastic stochastic simulation functions. Leveraging dual Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and a criterion based on empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-12 Yuying Huang , Samuel W. K. Wong

We address the computational efficiency in solving the A-optimal Bayesian design of experiments problems for which the observational map is based on partial differential equations and, consequently, is computationally expensive to evaluate.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-14 Vinh Hoang , Luis Espath , Sebastian Krumscheid , Raúl Tempone

Discovering novel materials with desired properties is essential for driving innovation. Industry 4.0 and smart manufacturing have promised transformative advances in this area through real-time data integration and automated production…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Avijit Saha Asru , Hamed Khosravi , Imtiaz Ahmed , Abdullahil Azeem

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

In sequential experiments, subjects become available for the study over a period of time, and covariates are often measured at the time of arrival. We consider the setting where the sample size is fixed but covariate values are unknown…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-28 Mia S. Tackney , David C. Woods , Ilya Shpitser

Bayesian optimal experiments that maximize the information gained from collected data are critical to efficiently identify behavioral models. We extend a seminal method for designing Bayesian optimal experiments by introducing two…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Stefano Balietti , Brennan Klein , Christoph Riedl

Conventional Bayesian optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) on model parameters. However, the end goal of the experiment often is not to learn the model parameters, but to predict downstream…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-20 Atlanta Chakraborty , Xun Huan , Tommie Catanach

Accounting for the complexity of psychological theories requires methods that can predict not only changes in the means of latent variables -- such as personality factors, creativity, or intelligence -- but also changes in their variances.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-27 Luna Fazio , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are established tools to model physical phenomena whose dynamics are affected by random noise. By estimating parameters of an SDE intrinsic randomness of a system around its drift can be identified…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Umberto Picchini , Susanne Ditlevsen

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Sam A. Whitaker , Andrew Golightly , Colin S. Gillespie , Theodore Kypraios

We introduce a fully stochastic gradient based approach to Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). Our approach utilizes variational lower bounds on the expected information gain (EIG) of an experiment that can be simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-28 Adam Foster , Martin Jankowiak , Matthew O'Meara , Yee Whye Teh , Tom Rainforth

Innovation in synthetic biology often still depends on large-scale experimental trial-and-error, domain expertise, and ingenuity. The application of rational design engineering methods promise to make this more efficient, faster, cheaper…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-18 Robyn P. Araujo , Sean T. Vittadello , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Shirin Golchi , James Willard

Preferential Bayesian optimization allows optimization of objectives that are either expensive or difficult to measure directly, by relying on a minimal number of comparative evaluations done by a human expert. Generating candidate…

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems, where the experimental design variables have a certain multiway structure. Given $d$ different experimental variables with $m_i$ choices per design variable $1 \le…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-03 Hugo Díaz , Arvind K. Saibaba , Srinivas Eswar , Vishwas Rao , Zichao Wendy Di

We consider the task of modeling a dependent sequence of random partitions. It is well-known that a random measure in Bayesian nonparametrics induces a distribution over random partitions. The community has therefore assumed that the best…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Garritt L. Page , Fernando A. Quintana , David B. Dahl

Perceptual judgments of sequential stimuli are systematically biased by prior expectations and by the temporal structure of sensory input. In haptic discrimination tasks, these effects often manifest as time-order asymmetries, whereby the…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-22 Gastón Avetta , Jose Lobera , Juan José Zárate , Inés Samengo , Damián G. Hernández

The real-world testing of decisions made using causal machine learning models is an essential prerequisite for their successful application. We focus on evaluating and improving contextual treatment assignment decisions: these are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

While many advanced statistical methods for the design of experiments exist, it is still typical for physical experiments to be performed adaptively based on human intuition. As a consequence, experimental resources are wasted on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Anton van Beek