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Statistical inference about the average effect in random-effects meta-analysis has been considered insufficient in the presence of substantial between-study heterogeneity. Predictive distributions are well-suited for quantifying…
Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that…
This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cross-sectional heteroskedasticity. The panel considered in…
We analyze linear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects and predetermined regressors, for example lagged-dependent variables. The first-order asymptotic theory of the least squares (LS) estimator of the regression…
Panel data allows for the modeling of unobserved heterogeneity, significantly raising the number of nuisance parameters and making high dimensionality a practical issue. Meanwhile, temporal and cross-sectional dependence in panel data…
We provide a comprehensive examination of the predictive performance of panel forecasting methods based on individual, pooling, fixed effects, and empirical Bayes estimation, and propose optimal weights for forecast combination schemes. We…
This paper studies identification and estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model of demand for differentiated product using consumer-level panel data with few purchase events per consumer (i.e., short panel). Consumers are…
Propensity score methods have been shown to be powerful in obtaining efficient estimators of average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data, especially under the existence of confounding factors. When estimating, deciding which type…
This paper considers a class of GMM estimators for general dynamic panel models, allowing for weakly exogenous covariates and cross sectional dependence due to spatial lags, unspecified common shocks and time-varying interactive effects. We…
In this paper, we propose a varying coefficient panel data model with unobservable multiple interactive fixed effects that are correlated with the regressors. We approximate each coefficient function by B-spline, and propose a robust…
This paper studies covariate adjusted estimation of the average treatment effect in stratified experiments. We work in a general framework that includes matched tuples designs, coarse stratification, and complete randomization as special…
Many structural econometric models include latent variables on whose probability distributions one may wish to place minimal restrictions. Leading examples in panel data models are individual-specific variables sometimes treated as "fixed…
There is a fast-growing literature on estimating optimal treatment regimes based on randomized trials or observational studies under a key identifying condition of no unmeasured confounding. Because confounding by unmeasured factors cannot…
This paper studies inference on treatment effects in panel data settings with unobserved confounding. We model outcome variables through a factor model with random factors and loadings. Such factors and loadings may act as unobserved…
This paper considers a model with general regressors and unobservable factors. An estimator based on iterated principal components is proposed, which is shown to be not only asymptotically normal and oracle efficient, but under certain…
Recently, conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation has been attracting much attention due to its importance in various fields such as statistics, social and biomedical sciences. This study proposes a partially linear…
This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Efron's biased-coin design and stratified block randomization,…
The complexity of semiparametric models poses new challenges to statistical inference and model selection that frequently arise from real applications. In this work, we propose new estimation and variable selection procedures for the…
This paper proposes a robust method for semiparametric identification and estimation in panel multinomial choice models, where we allow for infinite-dimensional fixed effects that enter into consumer utilities in an additively nonseparable…
We propose generalized additive partial linear models for complex data which allow one to capture nonlinear patterns of some covariates, in the presence of linear components. The proposed method improves estimation efficiency and increases…