Related papers: The stopped clock model
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…
A record is an entry in a time series that is larger or smaller than all previous entries. If the time series consists of independent, identically distributed random variables with a superimposed linear trend, record events are positively…
On the occasion of Laurens de Haan's 70th birthday, we discuss two aspects of the statistical inference on the extreme value behavior of time series with a particular emphasis on his important contributions. First, the performance of a…
Both marginal and dependence features must be described when modelling the extremes of a stationary time series. There are standard approaches to marginal modelling, but long- and short-range dependence of extremes may both appear. In…
We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are…
To capture the extremal behaviour of complex environmental phenomena in practice, flexi\-ble techniques for modelling tail behaviour are required. In this paper, we introduce a variety of such methods, which were used by the Lancopula…
We obtain error terms on the rate of convergence to Extreme Value Laws for a general class of weakly dependent stochastic processes. The dependence of the error terms on the `time' and `length' scales is very explicit. Specialising to data…
In the world of multivariate extremes, estimation of the dependence structure still presents a challenge and an interesting problem. A procedure for the bivariate case is presented that opens the road to a similar way of handling the…
A variety of methods have been proposed for inference about extreme dependence for multivariate or spatially-indexed stochastic processes and time series. Most of these proceed by first transforming data to some specific extreme value…
We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
In extreme value inference it is a fundamental problem how the target value is required to be extreme by the extreme value theory. In iid settings this study both theoretically and numerically compares tail estimators, which are based on…
We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…
One of the main goal of extreme value analysis is to estimate the probability of rare events given a sample from an unknown distribution. The upper tail behavior of this distribution is described by the extreme value index. We present a new…
Identifying groups of variables that may be large simultaneously amounts to finding out which joint tail dependence coefficients of a multivariate distribution are positive. The asymptotic distribution of a vector of nonparametric,…
Estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is often required for risk assessment of natural hazards in climate and geo-environmental sciences and for quantitative risk management in statistical finance, econometrics, and actuarial…
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…
Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…