Related papers: Ostwald growth rate in controlled Covid-19 epidemi…

The Omicron wave was the largest wave of COVID-19 pandemic to date, more than doubling any other in terms of cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In this paper, we present a large-scale agent-based model of policy interventions…

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their…

Several non-pharmaceutical interventions have been proposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the large scale, these empirical solutions, often associated with extended and complete lockdowns, attempt to minimize the costs…

With the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we characterize the nature of the growth trajectories of counties in the United States using a novel combination of spectral clustering and the correlation matrix. As the U.S. and the rest of the…

To reduce the impact of COVID-19 pandemic most countries have implemented several counter-measures to control the virus spread including school and border closing, shutting down public transport and workplace and restrictions on gathering.…

Controlling the spread of COVID-19 - even after a licensed vaccine is available - requires the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: physical distancing, limits on group sizes, mask wearing, etc. To date, such interventions…

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States has imposed a major threat to public health, the real economy, and human well-being. With the absence of effective vaccines, the preventive actions of social distancing and travel reduction…

The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…

National and local governments have implemented a large number of policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Evaluating the effects of these policies, both on the number of Covid-19 cases as well as on other economic outcomes is a key…

In more than two years since the COVID-19 virus was first detected in China, hundreds of millions of individuals have been infected, and millions have died. Aside from the immediate need for medical solutions (such as vaccines and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and…

Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases…

As the recent COVID-19 outbreak rapidly expands all over the world, various containment measures have been carried out to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mainland China, the containment measures consist of three types, i.e., Wuhan…

We present a very simple and transparent method to interpret time series of confirmed Covid-19 cases. Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point…

The COVID-19 pandemic constitutes one of the largest threats in recent decades to the health and economic welfare of populations globally. In this paper, we analyze different types of policy measures designed to fight the spread of the…

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019-2020 (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This pathogenic virus is able to spread asymptotically during its incubation stage through a…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

In order to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing restrictions, which have been widely carried out as policy choice to curb the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world, we formulate and discuss a staged and…