Related papers: A Note on the Evolution of Covid-19 in Italy
In a previous note we made an analysis of the spreading of the COVID disease in Italy. We used a model based on the logistic and Hubbert functions, the analysis we exploited has shown limited usefulness in terms of predictions and failed in…
The spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), starting in late 2019, has determined in Italy several interventions aimed to prevent saturation of the health system. We have examined the effects of such measures by proposing a mean-field model…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
An analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed on the basis of the epiMOX dashboard (publicly accessible at https://www.epimox.polimi.it) that deals with data of the epidemic trends and outbreaks in Italy from late February 2020. Our…
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, first introduced in [Parolini et al, Proc R. Soc. A., 2021] to analyse the COVID-19…
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population,…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…
We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…
The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…
In this work, using a detailed dataset furnished by National Health Authorities concerning the Province of Pavia (Lombardy, Italy), we propose to determine the essential features of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in term of contact dynamics.…
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…
In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and…
This paper presents an dashboard developed to analyse the outbreak of the Covid-19 infection in Italy considering daily NUTS-3 data on positive cases provided by the Italian Ministry of Health and on deaths derived from Italian regional…
As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…
In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official…
In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus…
The aim of this paper consists in the application of a recent epidemiological model, namely SEIR with Social Distancing (SEIR--SD), extended here through the definition of a social distancing function varying over time, to assess the…
The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role both at the beginning and in the most critical weeks of the outbreak, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether to impose a lockdown and at which…
We present a compartmental mathematical model with demography for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, considering also asymptomatic infectious individuals. We compute the basic reproductive ratio of the model and study the local and global…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…