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This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

We investigate the prominent class of fair representation learning methods for bias mitigation. Using causal reasoning to define and formalise different sources of dataset bias, we reveal important implicit assumptions inherent to these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Charles Jones , Fabio de Sousa Ribeiro , Mélanie Roschewitz , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Uplift modeling requires experimental data, preferably collected in random fashion. This places a logistical and financial burden upon any organisation aspiring such models. Once deployed, uplift models are subject to effects from concept…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-04 Jeroen Berrevoets , Wouter Verbeke

Causal discovery aims to automatically uncover causal relationships from data, a capability with significant potential across many scientific disciplines. However, its real-world applications remain limited. Current methods often rely on…

Causal understanding is important in many disciplines of science and engineering, where we seek to understand how different factors in the system causally affect an experiment or situation and pave a pathway towards creating effective or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Miguel Arana-Catania , Weisi Guo

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

The intuitive motivation for employing a sibling comparison design is to adjust for confounding that is constant within families. Such confounding can be caused by variables that otherwise might prove difficult to measure, for example…

This paper proposes a debiased estimator for causal effects in high-dimensional generalized linear models with binary outcomes and general link functions. The estimator augments a regularized regression plug-in with weights computed from a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

Analysts often make visual causal inferences about possible data-generating models. However, visual analytics (VA) software tends to leave these models implicit in the mind of the analyst, which casts doubt on the statistical validity of…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-07-29 Alex Kale , Yifan Wu , Jessica Hullman

Proxy variables are commonly used in causal inference when unmeasured confounding exists. While most existing proximal methods assume a unidirectional causal relationship between two primary variables, many social and biological systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Jiaqi Min , Xueyue Zhang , Shanshan Luo

Causal machine learning has the potential to revolutionize decision-making by combining the predictive power of machine learning algorithms with the theory of causal inference. However, these methods remain underutilized by the broader…

Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance on many supervised learning tasks. However, prior evidence suggests that these models may learn to rely on shortcut biases or spurious correlations (intuitively, correlations that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Sindhu C. M. Gowda , Shalmali Joshi , Haoran Zhang , Marzyeh Ghassemi

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

We address the problem of causal effect estimation where hidden confounders are present, with a focus on two settings: instrumental variable regression with additional observed confounders, and proxy causal learning. Our approach uses a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Haotian Sun , Antoine Moulin , Tongzheng Ren , Arthur Gretton , Bo Dai

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Arman Oganisian

In studies of discrimination, researchers often seek to estimate a causal effect of race or gender on outcomes. For example, in the criminal justice context, one might ask whether arrested individuals would have been subsequently charged or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Johann Gaebler , William Cai , Guillaume Basse , Ravi Shroff , Sharad Goel , Jennifer Hill

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

This paper proposes the use of causal modeling to detect and mitigate algorithmic bias. We provide a brief description of causal modeling and a general overview of our approach. We then use the Adult dataset, which is available for download…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Wendy Hui , Wai Kwong Lau