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We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Markus Kaiser , Clemens Otte , Thomas Runkler , Carl Henrik Ek

We introduce a particular construction of an autocorrelation matrix of a time series and its analysis based on the random-matrix theory ideas that is capable of unveiling the type of correlations information which is inaccessible to the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-06-11 Tayeb Jamali , Hamed Saberi , G. R. Jafari

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions, and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow-field with high-fidelity are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 S. Ashwin Renganathan , Romit Maulik , Stefano Letizia , Giacomo Valerio Iungo

Non-conjugate Gaussian processes (NCGPs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in NCGPs is prohibitively expensive for large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Lukas Tatzel , Jonathan Wenger , Frank Schneider , Philipp Hennig

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

Maximizing high-dimensional, non-convex functions through noisy observations is a notoriously hard problem, but one that arises in many applications. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by modeling the unknown function as a sample from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Bo Chen , Rui Castro , Andreas Krause

Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a self-similar stochastic process used to model anti-persistent or persistent dependency structures in observed time series. Properties of the autocovariance function of fGn are characterised by the Hurst…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye , Håvard Rue

Many real world problems exhibit patterns that have periodic behavior. For example, in astrophysics, periodic variable stars play a pivotal role in understanding our universe. An important step when analyzing data from such processes is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

We present a novel computational approach for extracting weak signals, whose exact location and width may be unknown, from complex background distributions with an arbitrary functional form. We focus on datasets that can be naturally…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-03-22 Abhijith Gandrakota , Amitabh Lath , Alexandre V. Morozov , Sindhu Murthy

Computing accurate estimates of the Fourier transform of analog signals from discrete data points is important in many fields of science and engineering. The conventional approach of performing the discrete Fourier transform of the data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-08 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric function estimators. However, their applications are largely limited by the expensive computational cost of the inference procedures. Existing stochastic or distributed synchronous…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-14 Hao Peng , Shandian Zhe , Yuan Qi

Studies of hadron resonances and their properties are limited by the accuracy and consistency of measured datasets, which can originate from many different experiments. We have used Gaussian Processes (GP) to build interpolated datasets,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-05-06 R. F. Ferguson , D. G. Ireland , B. McKinnon

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-14 Yue Wu , Jose Miguel Hernandez Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

In Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) data analysis, noise is typically assumed to be Gaussian, and the marginalized likelihood has a well-established analytical form derived within the framework of Gaussian processes. However, this Gaussianity…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-30 Mikel Falxa , Alberto Sesana

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a class of kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience applications. They are widely used because they are simple, flexible and provide very accurate estimates for nonlinear problems,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-10 Juan Emmanuel Johnson , Valero Laparra , Gustau Camps-Valls

In this paper, we consider the challenge of maximizing an unknown function f for which evaluations are noisy and are acquired with high cost. An iterative procedure uses the previous measures to actively select the next estimation of f…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-03 Emile Contal , David Buffoni , Alexandre Robicquet , Nicolas Vayatis

This paper proposes a predictive rate-selection framework based on Gaussian process (GP)-based radio map construction that is robust to location uncertainty. Radio maps are a promising tool for improving communication efficiency in 6G…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-19 Koya Sato

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Hugh Salimbeni , Marc Deisenroth

Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-23 Christopher J. Moore , Jonathan R. Gair

Multi-fidelity modeling and calibration are data fusion tasks that ubiquitously arise in engineering design. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach based on latent-map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that enables efficient and accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-17 Nicholas Oune , Jonathan Tammer Eweis-Labolle , Ramin Bostanabad