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Modeling stochastic traffic behaviors at the microscopic level, such as car-following and lane-changing, is a crucial task to understand the interactions between individual vehicles in traffic streams. Leveraging a recently developed theory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-21 Yun Yuan , Qinzheng Wang , Xianfeng Terry Yang

The ubiquity of multiscale interactions in complex systems is well-recognized, with development and heredity serving as a prime example of how processes at different temporal scales influence one another. This work introduces a novel…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-04 Nayely Vélez-Cruz , Manfred D. Laubichler

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitous tools for modeling and predicting continuous processes in physical and engineering sciences. This is partly due to the fact that one may employ a Gaussian process as an interpolator while facilitating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-16 D. Andrew Brown , Peter Kiessler , John Nicholson

Active inference is a theory that underpins the way biological agent's perceive and act in the real world. At its core, active inference is based on the principle that the brain is an approximate Bayesian inference engine, building an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-09 Ozan Çatal , Samuel Wauthier , Tim Verbelen , Cedric De Boom , Bart Dhoedt

Understanding adaptive human driving behavior, in particular how drivers manage uncertainty, is of key importance for developing simulated human driver models that can be used in the evaluation and development of autonomous vehicles.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Johan Engström , Ran Wei , Anthony McDonald , Alfredo Garcia , Matt O'Kelly , Leif Johnson

Gaussian Process (GP) emulators are widely used to approximate complex computer model behaviour across the input space. Motivated by the problem of coupling computer models, recently progress has been made in the theory of the analysis of…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-20 Victoria Volodina , Nikki Sonenberg , Peter Challenor , Jim Q. Smith

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Daniele Zambon , Andrea Cini , Cesare Alippi

In recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-22 Nathan Wycoff , Mickael Binois , Stefan M. Wild

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to represent and quantify model-form uncertainties in the reduced-order modeling of complex systems using operator inference techniques. Such uncertainties can arise in the selection of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-08 Jin Yi Yong , Rudy Geelen , Johann Guilleminot

Understanding how road users resolve space-sharing conflicts is important both for traffic safety and the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles. While existing models have captured specific aspects of such interactions (e.g., explicit…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Julian F. Schumann , Johan Engström , Ran Wei , Shu-Yuan Liu , Jens Kober , Arkady Zgonnikov

The use of Gaussian process models is typically limited to datasets with a few tens of thousands of observations due to their complexity and memory footprint. The two most commonly used methods to overcome this limitation are 1) the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Vincent Adam , Stefanos Eleftheriadis , Nicolas Durrande , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Tengjie Zheng , Jilan Mei , Di Wu , Lin Cheng , Shengping Gong

Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-09 Arnold Salas , Stephen J. Roberts , Michael A. Osborne

We propose a new approach to inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) based on the deep Gaussian process (deep GP) model, which is capable of learning complicated reward structures with few demonstrations. Our model stacks multiple latent GP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-08 Ming Jin , Andreas Damianou , Pieter Abbeel , Costas Spanos

We introduce a framework for model learning and planning in stochastic domains with continuous state and action spaces and non-Gaussian transition models. It is efficient because (1) local models are estimated only when the planner requires…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-08-06 Zi Wang , Stefanie Jegelka , Leslie Pack Kaelbling , Tomás Lozano-Pérez

Latent state space models are a fundamental and widely used tool for modeling dynamical systems. However, they are difficult to learn from data and learned models often lack performance guarantees on inference tasks such as filtering and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-31 Wen Sun , Arun Venkatraman , Byron Boots , J. Andrew Bagnell

For real-life nonlinear systems, the exact form of nonlinearity is often not known and the known governing equations are often based on certain assumptions and approximations. Such representation introduced model-form error into the system.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-20 Shailesh Garg , Souvik Chakraborty , Budhaditya Hazra

Active inference provides a general framework for behavior and learning in autonomous agents. It states that an agent will attempt to minimize its variational free energy, defined in terms of beliefs over observations, internal states and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-12 Samuel T. Wauthier , Bram Vanhecke , Tim Verbelen , Bart Dhoedt

Centuries of development in natural sciences and mathematical modeling provide valuable domain expert knowledge that has yet to be explored for the development of machine learning models. When modeling complex physical systems, both domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-01 Daniel L. Marino , Milos Manic