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Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…
Differential analysis is a routine procedure in the statistical analysis toolbox across many applied fields, including quantitative proteomics, the main illustration of the present paper. The state-of-the-art limma approach uses a…
We present a general framework of detrending methods of fluctuation analysis of which detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is one prominent example. Another more recently introduced method is detrending moving average (DMA). Both methods…
One formulation of forensic identification of source problems is to determine the source of trace evidence, for instance, glass fragments found on a suspect for a crime. The current state of the science is to compute a Bayes factor (BF)…
To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…
Linear mixed-effects models are a central analytical tool for modeling hierarchical and longitudinal data, as they allow simultaneous representation of fixed and random sources of variation. In practice, inference for such models is most…
The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) \cite{sahneh2013generalized} lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article…
Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…
This chapter provides various perspective on an important challenge in data assimilation: model error. While the overall goal is to understand the implication of model error of any type in data assimilation, we emphasize on the effect of…
At the heart of machine learning lies the question of generalizability of learned rules over previously unseen data. While over-parameterized models based on neural networks are now ubiquitous in machine learning applications, our…
The semiparametric accelerated failure time model is not as widely used as the Cox relative risk model mainly due to computational difficulties. Recent developments in least squares estimation and induced smoothing estimating equations…
Assessing variability according to distinct factors in data is a fundamental technique of statistics. The method commonly regarded to as analysis of variance (ANOVA) is, however, typically confined to the case where all levels of a factor…
We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an…
Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…
We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as…
This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and…
Analysis of non-asymptotic estimation error and structured statistical recovery based on norm regularized regression, such as Lasso, needs to consider four aspects: the norm, the loss function, the design matrix, and the noise model. This…
Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with…