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The probability of a given candidate winning a future election is worked out in closed form as a function of (i) the current support rates for each candidate, (ii) the relative positioning of the candidates within the political spectrum,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Dorje C. Brody , Tomooki Yuasa

Research on the causes of political polarization points towards multiple drivers of the problem, from social and psychological to economic and technological. However, political institutions stand out, because -- while capable of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-10 Daria Boratyn , Dariusz Stolicki

Bribery in an election is one of the well-studied control problems in computational social choice. In this paper, we propose and study the safe bribery problem. Here the goal of the briber is to ask the bribed voters to vote in such a way…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Neel Karia , Faraaz Mallick , Palash Dey

Significant enthusiasm around AI uptake has been witnessed across societies globally. The electoral process -- the time, place and manner of elections within democratic nations -- has been among those very rare sectors in which AI has not…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-02-09 Deepak P , Stanley Simoes , Muiris MacCarthaigh

We initiate the study of bribery problem in the context of gerrymandering and reverse gerrymandering. In our most general problem, the input is a set of voters having votes over a set of alternatives, a graph on the voters, a partition of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-09-05 Palash Dey

Social networks are increasingly being used to conduct polls. We introduce a simple model of such social polling. We suppose agents vote sequentially, but the order in which agents choose to vote is not necessarily fixed. We also suppose…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Serge Gaspers , Victor Naroditskiy , Nina Narodytska , Toby Walsh

The topic of this paper is "gerrymandering", namely the curse of deliberate creations of district maps with highly asymmetric electoral outcomes to disenfranchise voters, and it has a long legal history. Measuring and eliminating…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2020-08-05 Tanima Chatterjee , Bhaskar DasGupta

Congressional district lines in many U.S. states are drawn by partisan actors, raising concerns about gerrymandering. To separate the partisan effects of redistricting from the effects of other factors including geography and redistricting…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-15 Christopher T. Kenny , Cory McCartan , Tyler Simko , Shiro Kuriwaki , Kosuke Imai

Geographical considerations such as contiguity and compactness are necessary elements of political districting in practice. Yet an analysis of the problem without such constraints yields mathematical insights that can inform real-world…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-02-04 Gerdus Benade , Nam Ho-Nguyen , J. N. Hooker

Abstract Like electoral systems, decision-making methods are also vulnerable to manipulation by decision-makers. The ability to effectively defend against such threats can only come from thoroughly understanding the manipulation mechanisms.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Jacek Szybowski , Konrad Kułakowski , Jiri Mazurek , Sebastian Ernst

Voter control problems model situations such as an external agent trying to affect the result of an election by adding voters, for example by convincing some voters to vote who would otherwise not attend the election. Traditionally, voters…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2014-06-27 Laurent Bulteau , Jiehua Chen , Piotr Faliszewski , Rolf Niedermeier , Nimrod Talmon

Voter fraud in the United States is rare and the vote-counting system is robust against tampering, but there remains widespread distrust in the security of election infrastructure among the public. We consider statistical means of detecting…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-11 Christian Johnson

Recently, an increasing number of researchers, especially in the realm of political redistricting, have proposed sampling-based techniques to generate a subset of plans from the vast space of districting plans. These techniques have been…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Subhodip Biswas , Fanglan Chen , Zhiqian Chen , Chang-Tien Lu , Naren Ramakrishnan

The Coalitional Manipulation (CM) problem has been studied extensively in the literature for many voting rules. The CM problem, however, has been studied only in the complete information setting, that is, when the manipulators know the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-01 Palash Dey , Neeldhara Misra , Y. Narahari

We study candidates' positioning when adjustments are possible in response to new information about voters' preferences. Re-positioning allows candidates to get closer to the median voter but is costly both financially and electorally. We…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-05-05 Gaëtan Fournier , Alberto Grillo , Yevgeny Tsodikovich

We study the computational complexity of the map redistricting problem (gerrymandering). Mathematically, the electoral district designer (gerrymanderer) attempts to partition a weighted graph into $k$ connected components (districts) such…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Jack Dippel , Max Dupré la Tour , April Niu , Sanjukta Roy , Adrian Vetta

We focus on the scenario in which an agent can exploit his information advantage to manipulate the outcome of an election. In particular, we study district-based elections with two candidates, in which the winner of the election is the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Matteo Castiglioni , Nicola Gatti

An alternative voting scheme is proposed to fill the democratic gap between a president elected democratically via universal suffrage (deterministic outcome, the actual majority decides), and a president elected by one person randomly…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-01-11 Serge Galam

Political actors often manipulate redistricting plans to gain electoral advantages, a process known as gerrymandering. Several states have implemented institutional reforms to address this problem, such as establishing map-drawing…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-12 Cory McCartan , Christopher T. Kenny , Tyler Simko , Emma Ebowe , Michael Y. Zhao , Kosuke Imai

In recent years, in an effort to promote fairness in the election process, a wide variety of techniques and metrics have been proposed to determine whether a map is a partisan gerrymander. The most accessible measures, requiring easily…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-08-11 Thomas Ratliff , Stephanie Somersille , Ellen Veomett
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