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It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

We consider time to treatment initiation. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zhichen Zhao , Andrew Ying , Ronghui Xu

An instrument is a random variable thatallows the identification of parameters inlinear models when the error terms arenot uncorrelated.It is a popular method used in economicsand the social sciences that reduces theproblem of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Blai Bonet

Understanding the process of learning in neural networks is crucial for improving their performance and interpreting their behavior. This can be approximately understood by asking how a model's output is influenced when we fine-tune on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Jordan K. Matelsky , Lyle Ungar , Konrad P. Kording

In settings where interference between units is possible, we define the prevalence of indirect effects to be the number of units who are affected by the treatment of others. This quantity does not fully identify an indirect effect, but may…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 David Choi

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

This paper studies the finite sample performance of the flexible estimation approach of Farrell, Liang, and Misra (2021a), who propose to use deep learning for the estimation of heterogeneous parameters in economic models, in the context of…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-20 Stephan Hetzenecker , Maximilian Osterhaus

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

Can instrumental variables be found from data? While instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effect, testing their validity from observed data remains a challenge. This is because validity of an IV depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Amit Sharma

In this paper we describe the testing procedure for assessing the statistical significance of treatment effect under the experimental conditions of baseline imbalance across covariates and attrition from the survey, using the permutation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Christis Katsouris

In the standard difference-in-differences research design, the parallel trends assumption may be violated when the relationship between the exposure trend and the outcome trend is confounded by unmeasured confounders. Progress can be made…

In pharmacoepidemiology research, instrumental variables (IVs) are variables that strongly predict treatment but have no causal effect on the outcome of interest except through the treatment. There remain concerns about the inclusion of IVs…

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

Large-scale black-box models have become ubiquitous across numerous applications. Understanding the influence of individual training data sources on predictions made by these models is crucial for improving their trustworthiness. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Myeongseob Ko , Feiyang Kang , Weiyan Shi , Ming Jin , Zhou Yu , Ruoxi Jia

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

We propose a novel method for testing the null hypothesis of no effect of a covariate on the response in the context of functional linear concurrent regression. We establish an equivalent random effects formulation of our functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-16 Rahul Ghosal , Arnab Maity

Instrumental variables have been widely used for estimating the causal effect between exposure and outcome. Conventional estimation methods require complete knowledge about all the instruments' validity; a valid instrument must not have a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-23 Hyunseung Kang , Anru Zhang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

A platform trial is an innovative clinical trial design that uses a master protocol to evaluate multiple treatments, where patients are often assigned to different subsets of treatment arms based on individual characteristics, enrollment…

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