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Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yew-Soon Ong , Yi Wang

We propose a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to speed up computations for datasets with many observations. A key feature of our approach is the use of the highly efficient difference estimator from the survey sampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-03 Matias Quiroz , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

As sample sizes grow, scalability has become a central concern in the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. One general approach to this problem, exemplified by the popular stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD)…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-04 Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith , Azeem Zaman

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Guanyu Hu , HaiYing Wang

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-29 Alessio Benavoli , Jason Wyse , Arthur White

It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-01 Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet , Aliaksadr Hubin

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

Standard Gaussian Process (GP) regression, a powerful machine learning tool, is computationally expensive when it is applied to large datasets, and potentially inaccurate when data points are sparsely distributed in a high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-08 Z. Zhang , K. Duraisamy , N. A. Gumerov

Probabilistic models are conceptually powerful tools for finding structure in data, but their practical effectiveness is often limited by our ability to perform inference in them. Exact inference is frequently intractable, so approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2014-07-25 Robert Nishihara , Iain Murray , Ryan P. Adams

Estimation of small failure probabilities is one of the most important and challenging computational problems in reliability engineering. The failure probability is usually given by an integral over a high-dimensional uncertain parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2011-10-18 Konstantin M. Zuev , James L. Beck , Siu-Kui Au , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is shown to be effective for learning unknown dynamics, enabling efficient and safety-aware control strategies across diverse applications. However, existing GP-based model predictive control (GP-MPC)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-13 Manish Prajapat , Johannes Köhler , Amon Lahr , Andreas Krause , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Jian Cao , Joseph Guinness , Marc G. Genton , Matthias Katzfuss

In this paper we introduce a novel model for Gaussian process (GP) regression in the fully Bayesian setting. Motivated by the ideas of sparsification, localization and Bayesian additive modeling, our model is built around a recursive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-06 Hengrui Luo , Giovanni Nattino , Matthew T. Pratola

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a non-parametric, Bayesian framework to approximate complex models. Standard GP regression can lead to an unbounded model in which some points can take infeasible values. We introduce a new GP method that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-04 Didem Kochan , Xiu Yang

This paper presents a new approach for Gaussian process (GP) regression for large datasets. The approach involves partitioning the regression input domain into multiple local regions with a different local GP model fitted in each region.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Chiwoo Park , Daniel Apley

This paper presents the development of an algorithm, termed the Global-Local Hybrid Surrogate (GLHS), designed to efficiently compute the probability of rare failure events in complex systems. The primary goal is to enhance the accuracy of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Audrey Gaymann , Juan M. Cardenas , Sung Min Jo , Marco Panesi , Alireza Doostan

Adding inequality constraints (e.g. boundedness, monotonicity, convexity) into Gaussian processes (GPs) can lead to more realistic stochastic emulators. Due to the truncated Gaussianity of the posterior, its distribution has to be…

We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-08 James E. Barrett , Anthony C. C. Coolen