English
Related papers

Related papers: Efficient large deviation estimation based on impo…

200 papers

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

We introduce new quantile estimators with adaptive importance sampling. The adaptive estimators are based on weighted samples that are neither independent nor identically distributed. Using a new law of iterated logarithm for martingales,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-01 Daniel Egloff , Markus Leippold

Information collection is a fundamental problem in big data, where the size of sampling sets plays a very important role. This work considers the information collection process by taking message importance into account. Similar to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-01-15 Shanyun Liu , Rui She , Pingyi Fan

The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-08 Tomasz Badowski

We consider a generalization of the discrete-time Self Healing Umbrella Sampling method, which is an adaptive importance technique useful to sample multimodal target distributions. The importance function is based on the weights (namely the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-04 Gersende Fort , Benjamin Jourdain , Tony Lelièvre , Gabriel Stoltz

In many statistical signal processing applications, the estimation of nuisance parameters and parameters of interest is strongly linked to the resulting performance. Generally, these applications deal with complex data. This paper focuses…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-24 Melanie Mahot , Philippe Forster , Frederic Pascal , Jean-Philippe Ovarlez

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a specific collection of Markovian jump processes used for e.g. modelling of credit risk. Previous attempts at designing importance sampling algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Boualem Djehiche , Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

Importance sampling has become an indispensable strategy to speed up optimization algorithms for large-scale applications. Improved adaptive variants - using importance values defined by the complete gradient information which changes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-08 Sebastian U. Stich , Anant Raj , Martin Jaggi

With the growing availability of large-scale biomedical data, it is often time-consuming or infeasible to directly perform traditional statistical analysis with relatively limited computing resources at hand. We propose a fast subsampling…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-18 Haixiang Zhang , Lulu Zuo , HaiYing Wang , Liuquan Sun

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

We introduce and implement an importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm to study systems of globally-coupled oscillators. Our computational method efficiently obtains estimates of the tails of the distribution of various measures of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-07-12 Shamik Gupta , Jorge C. Leitao , Eduardo G. Altmann

To sample from a given target distribution, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling relies on constructing an ergodic Markov chain with the target distribution as its invariant measure. For any MCMC method, an important question is how to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Federica Milinanni , Pierre Nyquist

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-20 Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Pierre Petit

In this paper, we propose improved estimation method for logistic regression based on subsamples taken according the optimal subsampling probabilities developed in Wang et al. 2018 Both asymptotic results and numerical results show that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-24 HaiYing Wang

This work is concerned with the estimation of multidimensional regression and the asymptotic behaviour of the test involved in selecting models. The main problem with such models is that we need to know the covariance matrix of the noise to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-02-20 Joseph Rynkiewicz

We develop a provably efficient importance sampling scheme that estimates exit probabilities of solutions to small-noise stochastic reaction-diffusion equations from scaled neighborhoods of a stable equilibrium. The moderate deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-24 Ioannis Gasteratos , Michael Salins , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

The paper studies the problem of distributed parameter estimation in multi-agent networks with exponential family observation statistics. A certainty-equivalence type distributed estimator of the consensus + innovations form is proposed in…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Soummya Kar , Jose Moura

Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Kristopher De Asis , Eric Graves , Richard S. Sutton

Importance sampling is a promising variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulation based derivative pricing. Existing importance sampling methods are based on a parametric choice of the proposal. This article proposes an algorithm…

Applications · Statistics 2009-04-14 Jan C. Neddermeyer

We consider the problem of estimating the proportion $\theta$ of true null hypotheses in a multiple testing context. The setup is classically modeled through a semiparametric mixture with two components: a uniform distribution on interval…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-09 Van Hanh Nguyen , Catherine Matias