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Water availability is a major environmental driver affecting riparian and wetland vegetation. The interaction between water table fluctuations and vegetation in a stochastic environment contributes to the complexity of the dynamics of these…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-14 Stefania Scarsoglio , Paolo D'Odorico , Francesco Laio , Luca Ridolfi

We propose a method for causal inference using satellite image time series, in order to determine the treatment effects of interventions which impact climate change, such as deforestation. Simply put, the aim is to quantify the 'before…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-28 Vikas Ramachandra

This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Bryan Shaddy , Haitong Qin , Brianna Binder , James Haley , Riya Duddalwar , Kyle Hilburn , Assad Oberai

This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for detecting and estimating boundaries in treatment effects across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We formalize the concept of treatment effect boundaries as structural parameters…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-28 Tatsuru Kikuchi

In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-02-15 Laurent Hébert-Dufresne , Adam F. A. Pellegrini , Uttam Bhat , Sidney Redner , Stephen W. Pacala , Andrew M. Berdahl

How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…

Applications · Statistics 2011-10-26 Egil Ferkingstad , Anders Løland , Mathilde Wilhelmsen

Poor energy efficiency of homes is a major problem with urgent environmental and social implications. Housing in the UK relies heavily on fossil fuels for energy supply and has some of the lowest energy efficiency in Europe. We explore…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Boyana Buyuklieva , Adam Dennett , Nick Bailey , Jeremy Morley

Non-terminal events can represent a meaningful change in a patient's life. Thus, better understanding and predicting their occurrence can bring valuable information to individuals. In a context where longitudinal markers could inform these…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Juliette Ortholand , Stanley Durrleman , Sophie Tezenas du Montcel

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn , Heidi Seibold , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Achim Zeileis

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-16 Sebastian J. Schreiber , Maureen E. Ryan

Remote sensing techniques have been used effectively for measuring the overall loss of terrestrial ecosystem production and biodiversity due to the forest fire. The current research focuses on assessing the impact of forest fire severity on…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-05 Srikanta Sannigrahi , Sandeep Bhatt , Shahid Rahmat , Virendra Rana , Suman Chakraborti

We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-21 Inbar Seroussi , Nir Levy , Daniela Paolotti , Nir Sochen , Elad Yom-Tov

Disparity in suicide rates between urban and suburban/rural areas is growing, with rural areas typically witnessing higher suicide rates in the U.S. However, previous studies often ignored the effect of socio-environmental factors on the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-19 Sayanti Mukherjee , Zhiyuan Wei

Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-09 Michael Lechner , Jana Mareckova

Intense wildfires impact nature, humans, and society, causing catastrophic damage to property and the ecosystem, as well as the loss of life. Forecasting wildfire front propagation is essential in order to support fire fighting efforts and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-28 Myungsoo Yoo , Christopher K. Wikle

Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-19 Matthew Davidow , Cory Merow , Judy Che-Castaldo , Toryn Schafer , Marie-Christine Duker , Derek Corcoran , David Matteson

Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-06 Monika Zimmermann , Florian Ziel

Tree-grass coexistence in savanna ecosystems depends strongly on environmental disturbances out of which crucial is fire. Most modeling attempts in the literature lack stochastic approach to fire occurrences which is essential to reflect…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 Paweł Klimasara , Marta Tyran-Kamińska

Biodiversity monitoring represents a pressing global priority, and assessing forest community composition plays a crucial role due to its influence on ecosystem functions. The spatial distribution of forest species becomes essential for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Valeria Aloisi , Sergio Noce , Italo Epicoco , Cristina Cipriano , Massimo Cafaro , Giuseppe Brundu , Lorenzo Arcidiaco , Donatella Spano , Giovanni Aloisio , Simone Mereu

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19…

Applications · Statistics 2023-08-21 Xueqing Yin , John M. Aiken , Richard Harris , Jonathan L. Bamber