Related papers: A spatio-temporal model to understand forest fires…
Water availability is a major environmental driver affecting riparian and wetland vegetation. The interaction between water table fluctuations and vegetation in a stochastic environment contributes to the complexity of the dynamics of these…
We propose a method for causal inference using satellite image time series, in order to determine the treatment effects of interventions which impact climate change, such as deforestation. Simply put, the aim is to quantify the 'before…
This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…
This paper develops a unified theoretical framework for detecting and estimating boundaries in treatment effects across both spatial and temporal dimensions. We formalize the concept of treatment effect boundaries as structural parameters…
In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
Poor energy efficiency of homes is a major problem with urgent environmental and social implications. Housing in the UK relies heavily on fossil fuels for energy supply and has some of the lowest energy efficiency in Europe. We explore…
Non-terminal events can represent a meaningful change in a patient's life. Thus, better understanding and predicting their occurrence can bring valuable information to individuals. In a context where longitudinal markers could inform these…
Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…
We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly…
Remote sensing techniques have been used effectively for measuring the overall loss of terrestrial ecosystem production and biodiversity due to the forest fire. The current research focuses on assessing the impact of forest fire severity on…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Disparity in suicide rates between urban and suburban/rural areas is growing, with rural areas typically witnessing higher suicide rates in the U.S. However, previous studies often ignored the effect of socio-environmental factors on the…
Uncovering the heterogeneity of causal effects of policies and business decisions at various levels of granularity provides substantial value to decision makers. This paper develops estimation and inference procedures for multiple treatment…
Intense wildfires impact nature, humans, and society, causing catastrophic damage to property and the ecosystem, as well as the loss of life. Forecasting wildfire front propagation is essential in order to support fire fighting efforts and…
Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming…
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…
Tree-grass coexistence in savanna ecosystems depends strongly on environmental disturbances out of which crucial is fire. Most modeling attempts in the literature lack stochastic approach to fire occurrences which is essential to reflect…
Biodiversity monitoring represents a pressing global priority, and assessing forest community composition plays a crucial role due to its influence on ecosystem functions. The spatial distribution of forest species becomes essential for…
Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19 transmission and its potential determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the dynamics of disease spread. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19…