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200 papers

The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-10-12 Christian Thibeault , Antoine Strugarek , Paul Charbonneau , Benoit Tremblay

The review describes the development of ideas Gury Ivanovich Marchuk in the field of variational data assimilation for ocean models applied in particular in coupled models for long-range weather forecasts. Particular attention is paid to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-01-07 Christine Kazantsev , Eugene Kazantsev , Mikhail Tolstykh

Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a simple solar-wind propagation model to develop the first solar-wind variational DA scheme. This scheme…

Space Physics · Physics 2018-10-19 Matthew Lang , Mathew Owens

Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of terrestrial operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a variational DA scheme with a computationally efficient solar wind model and in situ observations from…

Space Physics · Physics 2021-08-04 Matthew Lang , Jake Witherington , Harriet Turner , Matt Owens , Pete Riley

Machine learning emulators have shown extraordinary skill in forecasting atmospheric states, and their application to global ocean dynamics offers similar promise. Here, we adapt the GraphCast architecture into a dedicated ocean-only…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Niraj Agarwal , Timothy A. Smith , Sergey Frolov , Laura C. Slivinski

Air-sea exchange processes have been identified as essential for both short- and long-term atmospheric and ocean forecasts. The two phases of the fluid layer covering our planet interact across a vast range of scales that we need to explore…

Oceanographic forecasting impacts various sectors of society by supporting environmental conservation and economic activities. Based on global circulation models, traditional forecasting methods are computationally expensive and slow,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-09 Giovanny A. Cuervo-Londoño , Javier Sánchez , Ángel Rodríguez-Santana

Soil moisture conditions can influence the evolution of a tropical cyclone (TC) that is partially or completely over land. Hence, better constraining soil moisture initial conditions in a numerical weather prediction model can potentially…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-01 Jana Kolassa , Manisha Ganeshan , Erica McGrath-Spangler , Oreste Reale , Rolf Reichle , Sara Q. Zhang

Global data assimilation enables weather forecasting at all scales and provides valuable data for studying the Earth system. However, the computational demands of physics-based algorithms used in operational systems limits the volume and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Thomas J. Vandal , Kate Duffy , Daniel McDuff , Yoni Nachmany , Chris Hartshorn

Floods are one of the most common and devastating natural disasters worldwide. The contribution of remote sensing is important for reducing the impact of flooding both during the event itself and for improving hydrodynamic models by…

Flood simulation and forecast capability have been greatly improved thanks to advances in data assimilation. Such an approach combines in-situ gauge measurements with numerical hydrodynamic models to correct the hydraulic states and reduce…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-07 Thanh Huy Nguyen , Sophie Ricci , Christophe Fatras , Andrea Piacentini , Anthéa Delmotte , Emeric Lavergne , Peter Kettig

Accurate estimation of error covariances (both background and observation) is crucial for efficient observation compression approaches in data assimilation of large-scale dynamical problems. We propose a new combination of a covariance…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-11 Sibo Cheng , Didier Lucor , Jean-Philippe Argaud

The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-19 Christopher David Roberts , Sarah Keeley , Kristian Mogensen , Charles Pelletier , Hao Zuo

Data assimilation has become a key technique for combining physical models with observational data to estimate state variables. However, classical assimilation algorithms often struggle with the high nonlinearity present in both physical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Zhuoyuan Li , Bin Dong , Pingwen Zhang

This paper contains the latest installment of the authors' project on developing ensemble based data assimilation methodology for high dimensional fluid dynamics models. The algorithm presented here is a particle filter that combines model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-22 Colin Cotter , Dan Crisan , Darryl Holm , Wei Pan , Igor Shevchenko

We apply two data assimilation (DA) methods, a smoother and a filter, and a model-free machine learning (ML) shallow network to forecast two weakly turbulent systems. We analyse the effect of the spatial sparsity of observations on accuracy…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-07-16 Vikrant Gupta , Yuanqing Chen , Minping Wan

The generation of initial conditions via accurate data assimilation is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling. We propose DiffDA as a denoising diffusion model capable of assimilating atmospheric variables using predicted…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Langwen Huang , Lukas Gianinazzi , Yuejiang Yu , Peter D. Dueben , Torsten Hoefler

We mathematically derive the sensitivity of data assimilation results for tsunami modelling, to perturbations in the observation operator. We consider results of variational data assimilation schemes on the one dimensional shallow water…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-24 N. K. -R. Kevlahan , R. A. Khan

We commonly refer to state-estimation theory in geosciences as data assimilation. This term encompasses the entire sequence of operations that, starting from the observations of a system, and from additional statistical and dynamical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-06-11 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino , Geir Evensen

Ocean buoy data in the form of high frequency multivariate time series are routinely recorded at many locations in the world's oceans. Such data can be used to characterise the ocean wavefield, which is important for numerous socio-economic…

Applications · Statistics 2023-08-25 Jake P. Grainger , Adam M. Sykulski , Kevin Ewans , Hans F. Hansen , Philip Jonathan