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The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…
It is widely known that the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can degrade quickly when targeting computationally expensive posterior distributions, such as when the sample size is large. This has motivated the search for MCMC…
The problem of estimating the probability p=P(g(X<0) is considered when X represents a multivariate stochastic input of a monotone function g. First, a heuristic method to bound p is formally described, involving a specialized design of…
We study approximations of evolving probability measures by an interacting particle system. The particle system dynamics is a combination of independent Markov chain moves and importance sampling/resampling steps. Under global regularity…
Making good predictions of a physical system using a computer code requires the inputs to be carefully specified. Some of these inputs called control variables have to reproduce physical conditions whereas other inputs, called parameters,…
When dealing with datasets containing a billion instances or with simulations that require a supercomputer to execute, computational resources become part of the equation. We can improve the efficiency of learning and inference by…
Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…
Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an optimal control algorithm with strong stability and robustness guarantees. Despite its popularity in robotics and industrial applications, the main challenge in deploying MPC is its high computation…
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…
Markov chain Monte Carlo is an inherently serial algorithm. Although likelihood calculations for individual steps can sometimes be parallelized, the serial evolution of the process is widely viewed as incompatible with parallelization,…
We propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the…
Brute force cross-validation (CV) is a method for predictive assessment and model selection that is general and applicable to a wide range of Bayesian models. Naive or `brute force' CV approaches are often too computationally costly for…
Motivated by the physics of strings and branes, we develop a class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms involving extended objects. Starting from a collection of parallel Metropolis-Hastings (MH) samplers, we place them on an…
In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…
Handling model mismatch is a common challenge in model predictive control (MPC). While robust MPC is effective, its conservatism often makes it less desirable. Certainty-equivalence MPC (CE-MPC), which uses a nominal model, offers an…
We consider the problem of estimating the measure of subsets in very large networks. A prime tool for this purpose is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. This algorithm, while extremely useful in many cases, still often suffers…
Optimizing or sampling complex cost functions of combinatorial optimization problems is a longstanding challenge across disciplines and applications. When employing family of conventional algorithms based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…
We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…
In this paper, we present MCBench, a benchmark suite designed to assess the quality of Monte Carlo (MC) samples. The benchmark suite enables quantitative comparisons of samples by applying different metrics, including basic statistical…