Related papers: evgam: An R package for Generalized Additive Extre…
Risk management in many environmental settings requires an understanding of the mechanisms that drive extreme events. Useful metrics for quantifying such risk are extreme quantiles of response variables conditioned on predictor variables…
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score…
In this paper, we introduce a novel model for the meta-analysis of proportions that integrates the standard random-effects model (REM) with an extreme value theory (EVT)-based component. The proposed model, named XT-REM (Extreme-Tail Random…
Writing data in parallel is a common operation in some computing environments and a good proxy for a number of other parallel processing patterns. The duration of time taken to write data in large-scale compute environments can vary…
Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…
Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…
Generalized estimating equations (GEE; Liang & Zeger 1986) for general vector regression settings are examined. When the response vectors are of mixed type (e.g. continuous-binary response pairs), the GEE approach is a semiparametric…
The vanilla method in univariate extreme-value theory consists of fitting the three-parameter Generalized Extreme-Value (GEV) distribution to a sample of block maxima. Despite claims to the contrary, the asymptotic normality of the maximum…
Extreme quantiles are critical for understanding the behavior of data in the tail region of a distribution. It is challenging to estimate extreme quantiles, particularly when dealing with limited data in the tail. In such cases, extreme…
The EM algorithm is a method for finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a model in the presence of missing data. Unfortunately, EM does not produce a parameter covariance matrix for standard errors. Supplemented EM (SEM; Meng & Rubin,…
This paper deals with optimally-robust parameter estimation in generalized Pareto distributions (GPDs). These arise naturally in many situations where one is interested in the behavior of extreme events as motivated by the…
Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly 2-dimensional situations. This paper contributes theoretical understanding, physically based models,…
Over the last decades, the challenges in applied regression and in predictive modeling have been changing considerably: (1) More flexible model specifications are needed as big(ger) data become available, facilitated by more powerful…
The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…
Differential equations (DEs) are crucial for modeling the evolution of natural or engineered systems. Traditionally, the parameters in DEs are adjusted to fit data from system observations. However, in fields such as politics, economics,…
Machine learning is vital in high-stakes domains, yet conventional validation methods rely on averaging metrics like mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE), which fail to quantify extreme errors. Worst-case prediction…
We present vir, an R package for variational inference with shrinkage priors. Our package implements variational and stochastic variational algorithms for linear and probit regression models, the use of which is a common first step in many…
We exploit the asymptotic normality of the extreme value theory (EVT) based estimators of the parameters of a symmetric L\'evy-stable distribution, to construct confidence intervals. The accuracy of these intervals is evaluated through a…
The effective use of available information in extreme value analysis is critical because extreme values are scarce. Thus, using the $r$ largest order statistics (rLOS) instead of the block maxima is encouraged. Based on the four-parameter…
We describe our submission to the Extreme Value Analysis 2019 Data Challenge in which teams were asked to predict extremes of sea surface temperature anomaly within spatio-temporal regions of missing data. We present a computational…